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Detecting Wage Under-Reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Elek

    (E”tv”s Lor nd University, Department of Econonomics)

  • Janos Kollo

    () (Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Balazs Reizer

    (Central European University)

  • Peter A. Szabo

    (Reformed Presbyterian Church of Central and Eastern Europe)

Abstract

We estimate a double hurdle (DH) model of the Hungarian wage distribution assuming censoring at the minimum wage and wage under-reporting (i.e. compensation consisting of the minimum wage, subject to taxation, and an unreported cash supplement). We estimate the probability of under-reporting for minimum wage earners, simulate their genuine earnings and classify them and their employers as 'cheaters' and 'non-cheaters'. In the possession of the classification we check how cheaters and non-cheaters reacted to the introduction of a minimum social security contribution base, equal to 200 per cent of the minimum wage, in 2007. The findings suggest that cheaters were more likely to raise the wages of their minimum wage earners to 200 per cent of the minimum wage thereby reducing the risk of tax audit. Cheating firms also experienced faster average wage growth and slower output growth. The results suggest that the DH model is able to identify the loci of wage under-reporting with some precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Elek & Janos Kollo & Balazs Reizer & Peter A. Szabo, 2012. "Detecting Wage Under-Reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1201, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:bworkp:1201
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Reizer, 2015. "Do Firms Pay Bonuses to Protect Jobs?," CEU Working Papers 2015_6, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    2. Balazs Reizer, 2016. "Do Firms Pay Bonuses to Protect Jobs?," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1612, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    3. Aljoša Feldina & Sašo Polanec, 2012. "Underreporting and Minimum Wage," LICOS Discussion Papers 32412, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    4. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Kumler, Todd J. & Verhoogen, Eric & Frias, Judith A., 2013. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll-Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," IZA Discussion Papers 7591, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. World Bank, 2013. "Minimum Wage Policy : Lessons with a Focus on the ASEAN Region," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16687, The World Bank.
    7. Gergely Baksay & Balázs Csomós, 2015. "Analysis of the Changes in the Hungarian Tax System and Social Transfers between 2010 and 2014 Using a Behavioural Microsimulation Model," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 37(supplemen), pages 29-64, December.
    8. Elek, Peter & Köllő, János, 2017. "Eliciting Permanent and Transitory Undeclared Work from Matched Administrative and Survey Data," IZA Discussion Papers 10800, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax evasion; double hurdle model; Hungary;

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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