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Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records

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  • Paulus, Alari

Abstract

We use income survey data linked with tax records at the individual level for Estonia to estimate the determinants and extent of income tax compliance in a novel way. Unlike earlier studies attributing income discrepancies between such data sources either to tax evasion or survey measurement error, we model these processes jointly. Focussing on employment income, the key identifying assumption made is that people working in public sector cannot evade taxes. The results indicate a number of socio-demographic and labour market characteristics, which are associated with non-compliance. Overall, people in the bottom and the top part of earnings distribution evade much more and about 12% of wages and salaries in total are underreported, which is very substantial for a major income source subject to third party reporting and tax withholding.

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  • Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2015-10
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    5. Péter Elek & János Köllő, 2019. "Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 547-576, August.
    6. Robayo, Monica & Balaban,Georgiana & Wronski,Marcin, 2024. "Tax Compliance in Romania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10940, The World Bank.
    7. R. Bollinger, Christopher & Valentinova Tasseva, Iva, 2022. "Income source confusion using the SILC," ISER Working Paper Series 2022-04, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
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    10. Michele Lalla & Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2020. "Nonresponse and measurement errors in income: matching individual survey data with administrative tax data," Department of Economics 0170, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    11. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    12. Cerniauskas Nerijus & Jousten Alain, 2021. "Statutory, effective, and optimal net tax schedules in Lithuania," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
    13. Hargaden, Enda Patrick, 2020. "Taxpayer responses in good times and bad," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 653-690.
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    15. Gabriele Mazzolini & Laura Pagani & Alessandro Santoro, 2022. "The deterrence effect of real-world operational tax audits on self-employed taxpayers: evidence from Italy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 1014-1046, August.
    16. Gabriele, Mazzolini & Laura, Pagani & Alessandro, Santoro, 2017. "The deterrence effect of real-world operational tax audits," Working Papers 359, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    17. Anikó Bíró & Péter Elek & Dániel Prinz & László Sándor, 2024. "Tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link: the case of maternity benefits," IFS Working Papers W24/57, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Ana Cinta G. Cabral & Norman Gemmell & Nazila Alinaghi, 2021. "Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 284-322, April.
    19. Michele Lalla & Patrizio Frederic & Daniela Mantovani, 2022. "The inextricable association of measurement errors and tax evasion as examined through a microanalysis of survey data matched with fiscal data: a case study," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(5), pages 1375-1401, December.
    20. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Income underreporting based on income-expenditure gaps: survey vs tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    21. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    22. Tomáš Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2021. "Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1449-1476, March.

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