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Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records

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  • Paulus, Alari

Abstract

We use income survey data linked with tax records at the individual level for Estonia to estimate the determinants and extent of income tax compliance in a novel way. Unlike earlier studies attributing income discrepancies between such data sources either to tax evasion or survey measurement error, we model these processes jointly. Focussing on employment income, the key identifying assumption made is that people working in public sector cannot evade taxes. The results indicate a number of socio-demographic and labour market characteristics, which are associated with non-compliance. Overall, people in the bottom and the top part of earnings distribution evade much more and about 12% of wages and salaries in total are underreported, which is very substantial for a major income source subject to third party reporting and tax withholding.

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  • Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2015-10
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hargaden, Enda Patrick, 2020. "Taxpayer responses in good times and bad," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 653-690.
    4. Odd E Nygård & Joel Slemrod & Thor O Thoresen, 2019. "Distributional Implications of Joint Tax Evasion," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1894-1923.
    5. Péter Elek & János Köllő, 2019. "Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 547-576, August.
    6. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 6, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    7. Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Michele Lalla & Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2020. "Nonresponse and measurement errors in income: matching individual survey data with administrative tax data," Department of Economics 0170, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    9. Lidia Ceriani & Vladimir Hlasny & Paolo Verme, 2021. "Bottom Incomes and the Measurement of Poverty: A Brief Assessment of the Literature," Working Papers 589, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    10. Karolina GORAUS‐TAŃSKA & Piotr LEWANDOWSKI, 2019. "Minimum wage violation in central and eastern Europe," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 158(2), pages 297-336, June.
    11. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Income underreporting based on income-expenditure gaps: survey vs tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Madeira, Carlos & Margaretic, Paula, 2022. "The impact of financial literacy on the quality of self-reported financial information," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    13. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Anna Pluta & Anna Zasova, 2023. "Keeping the best of two worlds: Linking CGE and microsimulation models for policy analysis," Working Papers 2023/01, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Gabriele, Mazzolini & Laura, Pagani & Alessandro, Santoro, 2017. "The deterrence effect of real-world operational tax audits," Working Papers 359, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    15. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    16. R. Bollinger, Christopher & Valentinova Tasseva, Iva, 2022. "Income source confusion using the SILC," ISER Working Paper Series 2022-04, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Gabriele Mazzolini & Laura Pagani & Alessandro Santoro, 2022. "The deterrence effect of real-world operational tax audits on self-employed taxpayers: evidence from Italy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 1014-1046, August.
    18. Michele Lalla & Patrizio Frederic & Daniela Mantovani, 2022. "The inextricable association of measurement errors and tax evasion as examined through a microanalysis of survey data matched with fiscal data: a case study," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(5), pages 1375-1401, December.
    19. Tomáš Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2021. "Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1449-1476, March.
    20. Ana Cinta G. Cabral & Norman Gemmell & Nazila Alinaghi, 2021. "Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 284-322, April.

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