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What we pay in the shadow: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment

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  • Nicolas Gavoille
  • Anna Zasova

Abstract

The interactions between minimum wage policy and tax evasion remain largely unknown. We study firm-level employment effects of a large and biting minimum wage increase in Latvia conditional on labor tax compliance. The Latvian labor market is characterized by the prevalence of envelope wages, i.e. unreported cash-in-hand complements to the official wage. We apply machine learning to classify firms between compliant and tax-evading using a unique combination of administrative and survey data. We then show that firms engaged in labor tax evasion are insensitive to the minimum wage shock. Our results suggest that these firms use wage underreporting as an adjustment margin, converting (part of) the envelope into legal wage. Increasing minimum wage contributes to tax rule enforcement, but this comes at the cost of negative employment consequences for compliant firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadow: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Working Papers CEB 21-017, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/331990
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    3. Han, Jiabin & Zhang, Miao & Long, Jiale, 2024. "Minimum wage standards and corporate short-term and long-term investment preferences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    4. Nicolas Gavoille, 2025. "A short drop or a sudden stop? Sanctions, trade shocks, and firms' adjustment margins," Working Papers 2025/03, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    6. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2021. "Foreign ownership and labor tax evasion: Evidence from Latvia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    8. Anikó Bíró & Péter Elek & Dániel Prinz & László Sándor, 2024. "Tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link: the case of maternity benefits," IFS Working Papers W24/57, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2022. "Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2023. "Does Wage Theft Vary by Demographic Group? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases," IZA Discussion Papers 16550, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Gazilas, Emmanouil Taxiarchis, 2024. "An empirical analysis on the impact of labour market regulations on uninsured employment in Greece," MPRA Paper 121311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy

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