IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/indres/v50y2011i2p205-240.html

Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data

Author

Listed:
  • SYLVIA A. ALLEGRETTO
  • ARINDRAJIT DUBE
  • MICHAEL REICH

Abstract

Traditional estimates of minimum wage effects include controls for state unemployment rates and state and year fixed-effects. Using CPS data on teens for the period 1990 – 2009, we show that such estimates fail to account for heterogeneous employment patterns that are correlated with selectivity among states with minimum wages. As a result, the estimates are often biased and vary with the source of identifying variation. Including controls for long-term growth differences among states and for heterogeneous economic shocks renders the employment and hours elasticities indistinguishable from zero and rules out any but small disemployment effects. Dynamic evidence further shows the nature of bias in traditional estimates, and it also rules out more negative long run effects. We do not find evidence of heterogeneous employment effects in different parts of the business cycle. We also consider predictable versus unpredictable changes in the minimum wage by looking at indexation of the minimum wage in some states.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvia A. Allegretto & Arindrajit Dube & Michael Reich, 2011. "Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 205-240, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:indres:v:50:y:2011:i:2:p:205-240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-232X.2011.00634.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    2. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2008. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Immigrants' Employment and Earnings," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(4), pages 544-563, July.
    3. Raphael, Steven, 1998. "The Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis and Black Youth Joblessness: Evidence from the San Francisco Bay Area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 79-111, January.
    4. William Wascher & David Neumark, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1362-1396, December.
    5. Christopher L. Foote, 2007. "Space and time in macroeconomic panel data: young workers and state-level unemployment revisited," Working Papers 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne & Stanger, Shuchita, 1999. "The Highs and Lows of the Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study of the Canadian Law," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 318-350, April.
    7. David Orr, 1999. "Book," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 3(4), pages 155-156, October.
    8. Laura Giuliano, 2007. "Minimum wage effects on employment, substitution, and the quality of the teenage labor supply: Evidence from personal data," Working Papers 0723, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    9. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2007. "The minimum wage and Latino workers," Working Papers 0708, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Arindrajit Dube & Suresh Naidu & Michael Reich, 2007. "The Economic Effects of a Citywide Minimum Wage," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 60(4), pages 522-543, July.
    11. Pinoli, Sara, 2008. "Rational Expectations and the Puzzling No-Effect of the Minimum Wage," MPRA Paper 11405, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2006. "The decline in teen labor force participation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q I), pages 2-18.
    13. Joseph Sabia, 2009. "The Effects of Minimum Wage Increases on Retail Employment and Hours: New Evidence from Monthly CPS Data," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-97, March.
    14. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2011. "Does a Higher Minimum Wage Enhance the Effectiveness of the Earned Income Tax Credit?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(4), pages 712-746, July.
    15. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2425, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    2. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    3. Dale Belman & Paul Wolfson & Kritkorn Nawakitphaitoon, 2015. "Who Is Affected by the Minimum Wage?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 582-621, October.
    4. Allegretto, Sylvia & Dube, Arindrajit & Reich, Michael, 2009. "Spatial Heterogeneity and Minimum Wages: Employment Estimates for Teens Using Cross-State Commuting Zones," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt1x99m65f, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    5. William E. Even & David A. Macpherson, 2014. "The Effect of the Tipped Minimum Wage on Employees in the U.S. Restaurant Industry," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 633-655, January.
    6. Kate Rybczynski & Anindya Sen, 2018. "Employment Effects Of The Minimum Wage: Panel Data Evidence From Canadian Provinces," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 116-135, January.
    7. Allegretto, Sylvia A., 2013. "Waiting for Change: Is it Time to Increase the $2.13 Subminimum Wage?," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3zx9v0zk, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    8. Marius Berger & Bruno Lanz, 2020. "Minimum wage regulation in Switzerland: survey evidence for restaurants in the canton of Neuchâtel," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2022. "The Heterogeneous Effect of Minimum Wage on Labor Market Flows in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1213, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Dolton, Peter & Bondibene, Chiara Rosazza & Stops, Michael, 2015. "Identifying the employment effect of invoking and changing the minimum wage: A spatial analysis of the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 54-76.
    11. Neumark, David & Salas, J.M. Ian & Wascher, William, 2013. "Revisiting the Minimum Wage-Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?," IZA Discussion Papers 7166, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Bosch, Gerhard & Weinkopf, Claudia, 2014. "Zur Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns von 8,50 € in Deutschland," Arbeitspapiere 304, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    13. John Schmitt, 2015. "Explaining the Small Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in the United States," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 547-581, October.
    14. Aretz Bodo & Gregory Terry & Arntz Melanie, 2013. "The Minimum Wage Affects Them All: Evidence on Employment Spillovers in the Roofing Sector," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 282-315, August.
    15. Knabe Andreas & Schöb Ronnie & Thum Marcel, 2014. "Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 133-157, June.
    16. Galán Sofía & Puente Sergio, 2015. "Minimum Wages: Do They Really Hurt Young People?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 299-328, January.
    17. Kragl, Jenny & Schöttner, Anja, 2011. "Wage floors and optimal job design," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 01/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    18. Yonezawa, Koichi & Gómez, Miguel I. & McLaughlin, Edward W., 2022. "Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases in the US Retail Sector: Full-Time versus Part-Time Employment," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.
    19. Mario Bossler & Hans-Dieter Gerner, 2020. "Employment Effects of the New German Minimum Wage: Evidence from Establishment-Level Microdata," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(5), pages 1070-1094, October.
    20. Loukas Karabarbounis & Jeremy Lise & Anusha Nath, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities," Working Papers 793, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:indres:v:50:y:2011:i:2:p:205-240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0019-8676 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.