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Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn

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  • Knabe, Andreas
  • Schöb, Ronnie
  • Thum, Marcel

Abstract

Die Einführung des flächendeckenden gesetzlichen Mindestlohns von 8,50 Euro ist ein großes, mit vielen sozialpolitischen Risiken verbundenes Experiment. Dieser Übersichtsartikel zeigt, dass weder die unterschiedlichen theoretischen Erklärungsmodelle noch die große Anzahl empirischer Arbeiten aus anderen Ländern die Hoffnung rechtfertigen, der Mindestlohn würde in Deutschland nicht zu substantiellen Beschäftigungsverlusten führen. Unsere Simulationsrechnung zeigt, dass bei einem Mindestlohn von 8,50 Euro - unabhängig vom unterstellten Arbeitsmarktszenario - substantielle Beschäftigungsverluste drohen. Besonders stark betroffen sind die heutigen Aufstocker, die von der Mindestlohnerhöhung kaum etwas mit nach Hause nehmen können, aber in Zukunft einem ungleich höheren Arbeitsplatzrisiko ausgesetzt sind. Diese Befunde lassen zweifeln, dass die Politik mit dem Mindestlohn ihre erklärten Ziele einer erhöhten Verteilungsgerechtigkeit und der Entlastung der öffentlichen Haushalte erreichen kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Knabe, Andreas & Schöb, Ronnie & Thum, Marcel, 2014. "Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn," Discussion Papers 2014/4, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20144
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    Cited by:

    1. Caliendo, Marco & Fedorets, Alexandra & Preuss, Malte & Schröder, Carsten & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2018. "The short-run employment effects of the German minimum wage reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 46-62.
    2. Mario Bossler, 2017. "Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 327-348, September.
    3. repec:iab:iabfob:201804 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:zbw:rwipos:058 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Heise, Arne, 2018. "Reconciling Facts with Fiction, or: A Theoretical Speculation of why the Minimum Wage has no Discernible Effect on Employment," MPRA Paper 92483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arni, Patrick & Eichhorst, Werner & Spermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Mindestlohnevaluation jetzt und nicht erst 2020," IZA Standpunkte 70, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. AndreasKnabe & RonnieSchöb & MarcelThum, 2014. "Internationale Vergleiche beim Mindestlohn," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(04), pages 34-35, August.
    8. AndreasKnabe & ChristineLücke & RonnieSchöb & MarcelThum & LarsVandrei & MichaelWeber, 2014. "Regionale Beschäftigungseffekte des Mindestlohns im Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(05), pages 03-12, October.
    9. Bossler, Mario & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Lochner, Benjamin & Betzl, Ute & Feist, Lisa, 2018. "The German minimum wage: Effects on business expectations, profitability, and investments," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 13/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Pies, Ingo, 2015. "Diskurs mit Schieflage: Eine ordnungsethische Nachbetrachtung der Mindeslohndebatte," Discussion Papers 2015-2, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    11. Roland Döhrn, 2014. "Falsche Hoffnungen. Der Mindestlohn gibt kaum Impulse für die Konjunktur," RWI Positionen, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 8, 04.
    12. Schäfer, Holger & Schmidt, Jörg, 2014. "Einstieg in Arbeit: Die Rolle der Arbeitsmarktregulierung. Gutachten im Auftrag der INSM," IW policy papers 15/2014, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    13. Vera Bitsch & Stefan Mair & Marta M. Borucinska & Christiane A. Schettler, 2017. "Introduction of a Nationwide Minimum Wage: Challenges to Agribusinesses in Germany," ECONOMIA AGRO-ALIMENTARE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 19(1), pages 13-34.
    14. Bellmann, Lutz & Bossler, Mario & Dummert, Sandra & Ostmeier, Esther, 2017. "Mindestlohn: Längsschnittstudie für sächsische Betriebe," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201707, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Schultz, Birgit, 2017. "The minimum wage effects on skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt," IWH Discussion Papers 31/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. RobertLehmann & JoachimRagnitz & MichaelWeber, 2015. "Mindestlohn in Ostdeutschland: Firmen planen Preiserhöhungen und Personalabbau," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 40-42, February.
    17. Steffen Henzel & Kira Engelhardt, 2014. "Arbeitsmarkteffekte des flächendeckenden Mindestlohns in Deutschland – eine Sensitivitätsanalyse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(10), pages 23-29, May.
    18. Pies, Ingo, 2014. "Die Gerechtigkeitsdebatte in Deutschland: Diskursversagen beim Mindestlohn," Discussion Papers 2014-18, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    19. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    20. Kriehn, Claudia, 2014. "Konsequenzen des Mindestlohns für Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer in der Landwirtschaft: Hypothesen und Datenlage," Thünen Working Papers 37, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    21. Joachim Möller & Karl Brenke & Gert Wagner & Thorsten Schulten & Gustav Horn & Hagen Lesch & Alexander Mayer & Lisa Schmid & Patrick Arni & Werner Eichhorst & Alexander Spermann & Klaus Zimmermann, 2014. "Das Mindestlohngesetz — Hoffnungen und Befürchtungen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 94(6), pages 387-406, June.
    22. Pies, Ingo, 2014. "Der ordonomische Ansatz: Eine Illustration am Beispiel des Mindestlohns," Discussion Papers 2014-17, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    23. Berthold, Norbert & Coban, Mustafa, 2015. "Mindestlöhne und Lohnsubventionen: Interaktionseffekte in den USA und in Deutschland
      [Minimum Wages and Wage Subsidies: Interaction Effects on Employment in the US and Germany]
      ," Discussion Paper Series 129, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    24. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Deutsche Konjunktur: Expansionstempo bleibt hoch," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    25. Döhrn, Roland, 2014. "Falsche Hoffnungen: Der Mindestlohn gibt kaum Impulse für die Konjunktur," RWI Positionen 58, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flächendeckender Mindestlohn; Beschäftigungsverluste; Verteilungsgerechtigkeit;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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