IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fubsbe/20144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn

Author

Listed:
  • Knabe, Andreas
  • Schöb, Ronnie
  • Thum, Marcel

Abstract

Die Einführung des flächendeckenden gesetzlichen Mindestlohns von 8,50 Euro ist ein großes, mit vielen sozialpolitischen Risiken verbundenes Experiment. Dieser Übersichtsartikel zeigt, dass weder die unterschiedlichen theoretischen Erklärungsmodelle noch die große Anzahl empirischer Arbeiten aus anderen Ländern die Hoffnung rechtfertigen, der Mindestlohn würde in Deutschland nicht zu substantiellen Beschäftigungsverlusten führen. Unsere Simulationsrechnung zeigt, dass bei einem Mindestlohn von 8,50 Euro - unabhängig vom unterstellten Arbeitsmarktszenario - substantielle Beschäftigungsverluste drohen. Besonders stark betroffen sind die heutigen Aufstocker, die von der Mindestlohnerhöhung kaum etwas mit nach Hause nehmen können, aber in Zukunft einem ungleich höheren Arbeitsplatzrisiko ausgesetzt sind. Diese Befunde lassen zweifeln, dass die Politik mit dem Mindestlohn ihre erklärten Ziele einer erhöhten Verteilungsgerechtigkeit und der Entlastung der öffentlichen Haushalte erreichen kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Knabe, Andreas & Schöb, Ronnie & Thum, Marcel, 2014. "Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn," Discussion Papers 2014/4, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/93137/1/78013530X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sylvia Allegretto & Arindrajit Dube & Michael Reich & Ben Zipperer, 2017. "Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 70(3), pages 559-592, May.
    2. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    3. Oliver Falck & Andreas Knabe & Andreas Mazat & Simon Wiederhold, 2013. "Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Wie viele sind betroffen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(24), pages 68-73, December.
    4. Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 0846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Neumark & William L. Wascher, 2008. "Minimum Wages," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262141027.
    6. Manning, Alan, 2004. "Monopsony and the efficiency of labour market interventions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 145-163, April.
    7. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    8. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
    9. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2004. "Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment: A Cross-National Analysis," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 57(2), pages 223-248, January.
    10. Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2012. "Impact des allégements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(7), pages 123-140.
    11. William Wascher & David Neumark, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1362-1396, December.
    12. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne & Stanger, Shuchita, 1999. "The Highs and Lows of the Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study of the Canadian Law," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 318-350, April.
    13. repec:spr:inrvec:v:45:y:2012:i:3:p:233-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Eccles, Mary & Freeman, Richard B, 1982. "What] Another Minimum Wage Study?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 226-232, May.
    15. Andreas Knabe & Ronnie Schöb, 2009. "Minimum Wage Incidence: The Case for Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 65(4), pages 403-441, December.
    16. Fidrmuc, Jan & Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios, 2012. "National minimum wage and labour market outcomes of young workers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws121209, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Guy Laroque & Bernard Salanié, 2000. "Une décomposition du non-emploi en France," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 331(1), pages 47-66.
    18. Joachim Möller & Marion König, 2008. "Ein Plädoyer für Mindestlöhne mit Augenmaß," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(06), pages 13-16, March.
    19. Gustav A. Horn & Heike Joebges & Camille Logeay & Simon Sturn, 2008. "Frankreich: Ein Vorbild für Deutschland?," IMK Report 31-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    21. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Ulf Rinne & Klaus Zimmermann, 2013. "Youth unemployment in old Europe: the polar cases of France and Germany," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    22. David Card, 1992. "Do Minimum Wages Reduce Employment? A Case Study of California, 1987–89," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 38-54, October.
    23. Neumark, David & Salas, J.M. Ian & Wascher, William, 2013. "Revisiting the Minimum Wage-Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?," IZA Discussion Papers 7166, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Jason Taylor & George Selgin, 1999. "By our bootstraps: Origins and effects of the high-wage doctrine and the minimum wage," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 447-462, December.
    25. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1992. "Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 55-81, October.
    26. Karl Brenke & Gert Wagner, 2013. "Gesetzliche Mindestlöhne: mit der Einführung kommen die Tücken der Umsetzung," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 93(11), pages 751-757, October.
    27. Arni, Patrick & Eichhorst, Werner & Pestel, Nico & Spermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Kein Mindestlohn ohne unabhängige wissenschaftliche Evaluation," IZA Standpunkte 65, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Aretz, Bodo & Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Rammer, Christian, 2012. "Der Mindestlohn im Dachdeckerhandwerk: Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitnehmerschutz und Wettbewerb," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-060, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    29. JoachimRagnitz & MarcelThum, 2007. "Zur Einführung von Mindestlöhnen: empirische Relevanz des Niedriglohnsektors," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(03), pages 36-39, June.
    30. Möller, Joachim, 2012. "Minimum wages in German industries : what does the evidence tell us so far?," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 45(3/4), pages 187-199.
    31. Joachim Ragnitz & Marcel Thum, 2008. "Beschäftigungswirkungen von Mindestlöhnen – eine Erläuterung zu den Berechnungen des ifo Instituts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(01), pages 16-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caliendo, Marco & Fedorets, Alexandra & Preuss, Malte & Schröder, Carsten & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2018. "The short-run employment effects of the German minimum wage reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 46-62.
    2. Mario Bossler, 2017. "Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 327-348, September.
    3. repec:iab:iabfob:201804 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:zbw:rwipos:058 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Heise, Arne, 2018. "Reconciling Facts with Fiction, or: A Theoretical Speculation of why the Minimum Wage has no Discernible Effect on Employment," MPRA Paper 92483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arni, Patrick & Eichhorst, Werner & Spermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Mindestlohnevaluation jetzt und nicht erst 2020," IZA Standpunkte 70, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. AndreasKnabe & RonnieSchöb & MarcelThum, 2014. "Internationale Vergleiche beim Mindestlohn," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(04), pages 34-35, August.
    8. AndreasKnabe & ChristineLücke & RonnieSchöb & MarcelThum & LarsVandrei & MichaelWeber, 2014. "Regionale Beschäftigungseffekte des Mindestlohns im Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(05), pages 03-12, October.
    9. Bossler, Mario & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Lochner, Benjamin & Betzl, Ute & Feist, Lisa, 2018. "The German minimum wage: Effects on business expectations, profitability, and investments," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 13/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Pies, Ingo, 2015. "Diskurs mit Schieflage: Eine ordnungsethische Nachbetrachtung der Mindeslohndebatte," Discussion Papers 2015-2, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    11. Roland Döhrn, 2014. "Falsche Hoffnungen. Der Mindestlohn gibt kaum Impulse für die Konjunktur," RWI Positionen, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 8, 04.
    12. Schäfer, Holger & Schmidt, Jörg, 2014. "Einstieg in Arbeit: Die Rolle der Arbeitsmarktregulierung. Gutachten im Auftrag der INSM," IW policy papers 15/2014, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    13. Vera Bitsch & Stefan Mair & Marta M. Borucinska & Christiane A. Schettler, 2017. "Introduction of a Nationwide Minimum Wage: Challenges to Agribusinesses in Germany," ECONOMIA AGRO-ALIMENTARE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 19(1), pages 13-34.
    14. Bellmann, Lutz & Bossler, Mario & Dummert, Sandra & Ostmeier, Esther, 2017. "Mindestlohn: Längsschnittstudie für sächsische Betriebe," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201707, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Schultz, Birgit, 2017. "The minimum wage effects on skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt," IWH Discussion Papers 31/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. RobertLehmann & JoachimRagnitz & MichaelWeber, 2015. "Mindestlohn in Ostdeutschland: Firmen planen Preiserhöhungen und Personalabbau," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 40-42, February.
    17. Steffen Henzel & Kira Engelhardt, 2014. "Arbeitsmarkteffekte des flächendeckenden Mindestlohns in Deutschland – eine Sensitivitätsanalyse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(10), pages 23-29, May.
    18. Pies, Ingo, 2014. "Die Gerechtigkeitsdebatte in Deutschland: Diskursversagen beim Mindestlohn," Discussion Papers 2014-18, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    19. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    20. Kriehn, Claudia, 2014. "Konsequenzen des Mindestlohns für Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer in der Landwirtschaft: Hypothesen und Datenlage," Thünen Working Papers 37, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    21. Joachim Möller & Karl Brenke & Gert Wagner & Thorsten Schulten & Gustav Horn & Hagen Lesch & Alexander Mayer & Lisa Schmid & Patrick Arni & Werner Eichhorst & Alexander Spermann & Klaus Zimmermann, 2014. "Das Mindestlohngesetz — Hoffnungen und Befürchtungen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 94(6), pages 387-406, June.
    22. Pies, Ingo, 2014. "Der ordonomische Ansatz: Eine Illustration am Beispiel des Mindestlohns," Discussion Papers 2014-17, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    23. Berthold, Norbert & Coban, Mustafa, 2015. "Mindestlöhne und Lohnsubventionen: Interaktionseffekte in den USA und in Deutschland
      [Minimum Wages and Wage Subsidies: Interaction Effects on Employment in the US and Germany]      ," Discussion Paper Series 129, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    24. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Deutsche Konjunktur: Expansionstempo bleibt hoch," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    25. Döhrn, Roland, 2014. "Falsche Hoffnungen: Der Mindestlohn gibt kaum Impulse für die Konjunktur," RWI Positionen 58, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flächendeckender Mindestlohn; Beschäftigungsverluste; Verteilungsgerechtigkeit;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fwfubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.