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Impact des allégements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques

Author

Listed:
  • Éric Heyer
  • Mathieu Plane

Abstract

In this study, we propose a quantitative evaluation on employment of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers with the macroeconomic model of the OFCE emod.fr. We evaluate that this measure creates 500,000 jobs after five years, but induces a cost to public finances. If we were to fund ex post the measure, the impact on employment would be reduced compared to the initial evaluation of 35% to 50% depending on the type of financing used. And if this policy does not result in increased competitiveness on the outside, then the effect on employment is divided by three or seven in the worst case from the initial evaluation. JEL code : C13, C22, E24, E27, J38

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2012. "Impact des allégements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(7), pages 123-140.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_126_0123
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mathieu Bunel & Céline Emond & Yannick L’Horty, 2012. "Évaluer les réformes des exonérations générales de cotisations sociales," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(7), pages 57-103.
    2. Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "Une arme miracle contre le chômage ? Fiche de lecture sur 'Une nouvelle évaluation des effets des allègements de charges sociales sur les bas salaires'," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5271, Sciences Po.
    3. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    4. Chéron, Arnaud & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François, 2008. "A quantitative evaluation of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers: An equilibrium search approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 817-843, April.
    5. Pierre Cahuc, 2003. "Baisser les charges sociales, jusqu'où et comment ?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 17(3), pages 3-54.
    6. Marion Cochard & Gérard Cornilleau & Eric Heyer, 2010. "Les marchés du travail dans la crise," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 181-204.
    7. Kramarz, Francis & Philippon, Thomas, 2001. "The impact of differential payroll tax subsidies on minimum wage employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 115-146, October.
    8. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version : e-mod.fr," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 245-300.
    9. Mathieu Plane, 2012. "Évaluation de l'impact économique du crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE)," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(7), pages 141-153.
    10. Islem Gafsi & Yannick L’Horty & Ferhat Mihoubi, 2004. "Allègement du coût du travail et emploi peu qualifié : une réévaluation," Documents de recherche 04-03, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    11. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2000. "Effets et financement d'une réduction des charges sur les bas salaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 489-498.
    12. Christian Gianella & Sandrine Duchêne & Sébastien Doisy, 2004. "Un modèle d’appariement avec hétérogénéité du facteur travail : un nouvel outil d’évaluation des politiques économiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 162(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Pierre-Yves Cabannes & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Caroline Klein & Guy Lalanne & Olivier Monso & Erwan Pouliquen & Olivier Simon, 2012. "Survol de Mésange : un modèle macroéconomique à l'usage du praticien," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 179-216.
    14. Sébastien Doisy & Sandrine Duchêne & Christian Gianella, 2004. "Un modèle d'appariement avec hétérogénéité du facteur travail : un nouvel outil d'évaluation des politiques économiques," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 162(1), pages 1-22.
    15. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00270295 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1993. "Labor Demand and the Source of Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 4394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Simon Cueva & Éric Heyer, 1997. "Fonction de production et degrés d'utilisation du capital et du travail : une analyse économétrique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 131(5), pages 93-111.
    18. repec:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:66:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Muriel Barlet & Didier Blanchet & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2009. "Microsimulation et modèles d’agents : une approche alternative pour l’évaluation des politiques d’emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 429(1), pages 51-76.
    20. Sophie Audric & Pauline Givord & Corinne Prost, 2000. "Estimation de l'impact sur l'emploi non qualifié des mesures de baisse de charges," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 513-522.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michaël Zemmour, 2013. "Les dépenses socio-fiscales ayant trait à la protection sociale : état des lieux," Working Papers hal-01064750, HAL.
    2. Knabe Andreas & Schöb Ronnie & Thum Marcel, 2014. "Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 133-157, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor costs; competitiveness; employment; France; macroeconometric model;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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