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Evaluation de l'impact du CICE par une méthode

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Nicolas Yol

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Ce rapport propose une évaluation des effets macroéconomiques du CICE sur la période 2013-2015. Nous réalisons des simulations à partir du modèle macro-économétrique de l'OFCE e-mod.fr, lequel est calibré à l'aide d'estimations effectuées par le TEPP sur données d'entreprises. Nous intégrons les hausses de prélèvements obligatoires et les économies de dépenses publiques associées au CICE afin de prendre en compte leurs impacts récessifs sur l'économie. Outre les effets relatifs au financement du CICE, nos simulations intègrent également les effets de bouclage macroéconomique, contrairement aux approches micro-économétriques. Les résultats suggèrent que compte tenu de l'effort budgétaire, le CICE aurait permis de créer entre 111 000 (scénario bas) et 281 000 (scénario haut) emplois entre 2013 et 2015, alors que les effets sur le PIB seraient quasi-nuls. L'augmentation de la fiscalité et les économies de dépenses publiques exercent des effets négatifs sur la demande adressée aux entreprises, contribuant à limiter l'efficacité de la mesure sur les créations d'emplois. Le manque de données disponibles après 2015 ne nous permet toutefois pas de prendre en compte l'intégralité des économies de dépenses publiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Ducoudre & Nicolas Yol, 2018. "Evaluation de l'impact du CICE par une méthode," Working Papers hal-03471572, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03471572
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03471572v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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