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State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data

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  • Radhakrishnan Gopalan
  • Barton H. Hamilton
  • Ankit Kalda
  • David Sovich

Abstract

We use administrative payroll data to estimate the effect of the minimum wage on employment and wages. We find that both effects are nuanced. While the overall number of low-wage workers in firms declines, incumbent workers are no less likely to remain employed. We find that firms reduce employment primarily through hiring, and there is significant heterogeneity across the nontradable and tradable sectors. For wages, we find modest spillovers extending up to $2.50 above the minimum wage. Spillovers accrue to both incumbent workers and new hires, but only within firms that employ a significant fraction of low-wage workers.

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  • Radhakrishnan Gopalan & Barton H. Hamilton & Ankit Kalda & David Sovich, 2021. "State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(3), pages 673-707.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/711355
    DOI: 10.1086/711355
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    Cited by:

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    3. Demir, Gökay, 2023. "Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 16204, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    5. Elodie Andrieu & Malgorzata Kuczera, 2023. "Minimum Wage and Skills -Evidence from Job Vacancy Data," Working Papers 034, The Productivity Institute.
    6. Demir, Gökay, 2022. "Labor market frictions and spillover effects from publicly announced sectoral minimum wages," Ruhr Economic Papers 985, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Yim, Hyejin & Katare, Bhagyashree & Cuffey, Joel, 2022. "Does Increasing Minimum Wage Impact Service Quality? Evidence from Restaurant Food Safety Inspections," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322411, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    9. Bustos, Emil, 2023. "The Effect of Centrally Bargained Wages on Firm Growth," Working Paper Series 1456, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Hampton, Matt & Totty, Evan, 2023. "Minimum wages, retirement timing, and labor supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. Adam Ayaita, 2022. "Does Money Change Who You Are? Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Wage Increases on Personality," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1170, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    12. Ganserer, Angelika & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "Minimum Wages and the Rise in Solo Self-Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 15283, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2023. "How important are minimum wage increases in increasing the wages of minimum wage workers?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 594-612, October.
    14. Mohit Sharma & Brinda Viswanathan, 2022. "Minimum Wages in the Presence of Wage and Non-Wage Sectors in India: An Exploratory Analysis of the Non-Farm Sector," Working Papers 2022-225, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    15. Hyunbae Chun & Jungmin Lee & Donghan Shin, 2024. "Does the Minimum Wage Affect Non-wage Workers?," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 40, pages 5-47.
    16. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2021. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-analysis Plan," IZA Discussion Papers 14747, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. David Neumark, 2023. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors," NBER Working Papers 31191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    19. Kim, Ji Hwan & Lee, Jungmin & Lee, Kyungho, 2023. "Minimum wage, social insurance mandate, and working hours," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    20. Lennon, Conor & Teltser, Keith F. & Fernandez, Jose & Gohmann, Stephan, 2023. "How morality and efficiency shape public support for minimum wages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 618-637.
    21. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    22. Omberg Robert Tucker, 2021. "Puerto Rico's minimum wage: Revisiting a price floor with bite," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, January.
    23. Bassier, Ihsaan, 2022. "Collective bargaining and spillovers in local labor markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118057, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Ihsaan Bassier, 2022. "Collective bargaining and spillovers in local labor markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp1895, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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