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Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Elek

    () (Department of Economics, Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) Budapest)

  • Janos Kollo

    () (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

We study the undeclared work patterns of Hungarian employees in relatively stable jobs, using a panel dataset that matches individual-level self-reported Labour Force Survey (LFS) data with administrative data from the Pension Directorate for 2001–2006. We estimate the determinants of undeclared work using Heckman-type random-effects panel probit models, and develop a two-regime model to separate permanent and transitory undeclared work, where the latter follows a Markov chain. We find that about 6 per cent of workers went permanently unreported for six consecutive years, and a further 3-4 per cent were transitorily unreported in any given year. By simulating the permanent and transitory components of undeclared work, we examine the implications for health and pension eligibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Elek & Janos Kollo, 2016. "Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1605, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:bworkp:1605
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massimo Baldini & Paolo Bosi & Michele Lalla, 2009. "Tax evasion and misreporting in income tax returns and household income surveys," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 333-348.
    2. Jaanika Meriküll & Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Unreported Employment and Envelope Wages in Mid-Transition: Comparing Developments and Causes in the Baltic Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 637-670, December.
    3. Cichocki, Stanislaw & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2010. "Shadow employment in post-transition--Is informal employment a matter of choice or no choice in Poland?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 527-535, August.
    4. Stanisław Cichocki & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2009. "Shadow Employment In Transition - A Matter of Choice or No Choice?," Working Papers 2009-07, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    undeclared work; labour input method; matched administrative-survey data; random-effects panel probit model with endogenous selection; Markov chain;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market

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