IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v85y2023ics0927537123001343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The minimum wage and the wage distribution in Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Oliveira, Carlos

Abstract

Raising the minimum wage can reshape the wage distribution. Using a semiparametric approach, counterfactual decomposition methods, and an extremely rich administrative dataset of all employees in Portugal, this paper presents significant visual and quantitative evidence of how changes in the minimum wage shaped the country’s wage distribution over the last thirty years. For most of this period, the importance of the minimum wage was decreasing. However, a sustained rise since 2006 coincided with a decline in wage inequality that was comparable to the United States’ total increase in inequality over the last five decades. This remarkable compression of the wage distribution can be fully accounted for by the rising minimum wage. While a minority of workers were directly covered by the minimum wage, spillover effects were observed up to the 54th percentile of the wage distribution, explaining more than half of its inequality-reducing effect. Portugal experienced modest wage growth between 2006 and 2019 but 38% of it can be associated to the increasing minimum wage.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliveira, Carlos, 2023. "The minimum wage and the wage distribution in Portugal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s0927537123001343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537123001343
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102459?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Blaise Melly, 2013. "Inference on Counterfactual Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2205-2268, November.
    2. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    3. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    4. Mark B. Stewart, 2012. "Wage inequality, minimum wage effects, and spillovers," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 616-634, October.
    5. Markus Frlich, 2004. "Finite-Sample Properties of Propensity-Score Matching and Weighting Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 77-90, February.
    6. Pedro S. Martins, 2021. "30,000 Minimum Wages: The Economic Effects of Collective Bargaining Extensions," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 335-369, June.
    7. Fortin, Nicole & Lemieux, Thomas & Firpo, Sergio, 2011. "Decomposition Methods in Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 1-102, Elsevier.
    8. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    9. Richard B. Freeman, 1980. "Unionism and the Dispersion of Wages," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 34(1), pages 3-23, October.
    10. Machin, Stephen, 1997. "The decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 647-657, April.
    11. Pereira, Sonia C., 2003. "The impact of minimum wages on youth employment in Portugal," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 229-244, April.
    12. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso & Patrick Kline, 2016. "Bargaining, Sorting, and the Gender Wage Gap: Quantifying the Impact of Firms on the Relative Pay of Women," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 633-686.
    13. Caliendo, Marco & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2022. "Did the minimum wage reduce the gender wage gap in Germany?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 1998. "Rank Regressions, Wage Distributions, and the Gender Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(3), pages 610-643.
    15. José Mata & José A. F. Machado, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465.
    16. Mario Bossler & Thorsten Schank, 2023. "Wage Inequality in Germany after the Minimum Wage Introduction," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 813-857.
    17. Butcher, Tim & Dickens, Richard & Manning, Alan, 2012. "Minimum wages and wage inequality: some theory and an application to the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 48937, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. David H. Autor & Alan Manning & Christopher L. Smith, 2016. "The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 58-99, January.
    19. Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux & Neil Lloyd, 2021. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages: The Role of Spillover Effects," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 369-412.
    20. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1992. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast-Food Industry," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 6-21, October.
    21. Coen N. Teulings, 2003. "The contribution of minimum wages to increasing wage inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 801-833, October.
    22. Meyer, Robert H & Wise, David A, 1983. "Discontinuous Distributions and Missing Persons: The Minimum Wage and Unemployed Youth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1677-1698, November.
    23. Mário Centeno & Álvaro Novo, 2014. "When supply meets demand: wage inequality in Portugal," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, December.
    24. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2022. "Wage Flexibility under Sectoral Bargaining," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2013-2061.
    25. Mincer, Jacob, 1976. "Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 87-104, August.
    26. Helen Robinson, 2002. "Wrong Side of the Track? The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Gender Pay Gaps in Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 417-448, December.
    27. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, September.
    28. David S. Lee, 1999. "Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s: Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 977-1023.
    29. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & David Zentler-Munro, 2022. "Seeing beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 203-247.
    30. Cardoso, Ana Rute, 2006. "Wage mobility: do institutions make a difference?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 387-404, June.
    31. repec:fth:prinin:298 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1994. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Wage Dispersion and Employment: Evidence from the U.K. Wages Councils," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 47(2), pages 319-329, January.
    33. Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1992. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast Food Industry," Working Papers 678, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    34. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal & Hugo Vilares, 2017. "Unions and Collective Bargaining in the Wake of the Great Recession: Evidence from Portugal," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 551-576, September.
    35. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-243, May.
    36. Juan Dolado & Francis Kramarz & Steven Machin & Alan Manning & David Margolis & Coen Teulings, 1996. "The Economic Impact of Minimum Wages in Europe," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00353896, HAL.
    37. Florian Hoffmann & David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2020. "Growing Income Inequality in the United States and Other Advanced Economies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 52-78, Fall.
    38. Kemal Kizilca & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela & Carla Sá, 2010. "Minimum wage, fringe benefits, overtime payments and the gender wage gap," NIPE Working Papers 34/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    39. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    40. Winfried Koeniger & Marco Leonardi & Luca Nunziata, 2007. "Labor Market Institutions and Wage Inequality," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 60(3), pages 340-356, April.
    41. Meyer, Robert H & Wise, David A, 1983. "The Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment and Earnings of Youth," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 66-100, January.
    42. Dale Belman & Paul J. Wolfson, 2014. "What Does the Minimum Wage Do?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wdmwd, December.
    43. Shi Li & Xinxin Ma, 2015. "Impact of minimum wage on gender wage gaps in urban China," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, December.
    44. Olivier Bargain & Karina Doorley & Philippe Van Kerm, 2019. "Minimum Wages and the Gender GAP in Pay: New Evidence from the United Kingdom and Ireland," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(3), pages 514-539, September.
    45. David Neumark & DMark Schweitzer & DaWilliam Wascher, 2004. "Minimum Wage Effects throughout the Wage Distribution," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(2).
    46. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning & Lupin Rahman, 2003. "Where the Minimum Wage Bites Hard: Introduction of Minimum Wages to a Low Wage Sector," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 154-180, March.
    47. Maria da Paz Campos Lima & Diogo Martins & Ana Cristina Costa & António Velez, 2021. "Internal devaluation and economic inequality in Portugal: challenges to industrial relations in times of crisis and recovery," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 27(1), pages 47-73, February.
    48. Freeman, Richard B, 1996. "The Minimum Wage as a Redistributive Tool," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 639-649, May.
    49. Ana Rute Cardoso & Pedro Portugal, 2005. "Contractual Wages and the Wage Cushion under Different Bargaining Settings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(4), pages 875-902, October.
    50. Christian Dustmann & Attila Lindner & Uta Schönberg & Matthias Umkehrer & Philipp vom Berge, 2022. "Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 267-328.
    51. Jean Baldwin Grossman, 1983. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Other Wages," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 359-378.
    52. Romain Aeberhardt & Pauline Givord & Claire Marbot, 2016. "Spillover effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An UnconditionalQuantile Regression," Working Papers 2016-05, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natália P. Monteiro & Odd Rune Straume, 2024. "Management Practices, Pay, and Pay Inequality," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 254-304, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Disitribution: Bite, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality," GEE Papers 0160, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised May 2022.
    2. Oliveira, Carlos, 2021. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Distribution: Minimum Wage, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality in Portugal," MPRA Paper 112534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2524, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Brochu, Pierre & Green, David A. & Lemieux, Thomas & Townsend, James, 2023. "The Minimum Wage, Turnover, and the Shape of the Wage Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 16514, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Salverda, Wiemer & Checchi, Daniele, 2014. "Labour-Market Institutions and the Dispersion of Wage Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 8220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2006. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research," NBER Working Papers 12663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dale Belman & Paul Wolfson & Kritkorn Nawakitphaitoon, 2015. "Who Is Affected by the Minimum Wage?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 582-621, October.
    8. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2101-2163 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Medrano-Adán, Luis & Salas-Fumás, Vicente, 2023. "Do minimum wages deliver what they promise? Effects of minimum wage on employment, output, and income inequality from occupational choice theory," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 366-383.
    10. Romain Aeberhardt & Pauline Givord & Claire Marbot, 2016. "Spillover effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An UnconditionalQuantile Regression," Working Papers 2016-05, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Duanmu, Jing-Lin & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Lu, Jane Wenzhen & Clegg, Jeremy, 2022. "Contraction under minimum wages? Operational and financial advantages of multinational subsidiaries in China," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(2).
    12. Mayneris, Florian & Poncet, Sandra & Zhang, Tao, 2018. "Improving or disappearing: Firm-level adjustments to minimum wages in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 20-42.
    13. Pérez Pérez, Jorge, 2020. "The minimum wage in formal and informal sectors: Evidence from an inflation shock," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Lemos, Sara, 2004. "A Menu of Minimum Wage Variables for Evaluating Wages and Employment Effects: Evidence from Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 1069, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    16. Denis Fougère & Erwan Gautier & Sébastien Roux, 2016. "The Impact of the National Minimum Wage on Industry-Level Wage Bargaining in France," Working Papers hal-01308722, HAL.
    17. Richard Dickens & Alan Manning & Tim Butcher, 2012. "Minimum Wages and Wage Inequality: Some Theory and an Application to the UK," Working Paper Series 4512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2020. "When the Minimum Wage Really Bites Hard: Impact on Top Earners and Skill Supply," CESifo Working Paper Series 8540, CESifo.
    19. Otterby, Dawn & Crawley, Andrew & Gabe, Todd, 2023. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on U.S. County Labor Markets," MPRA Paper 116162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cardoso, Ana & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Job Accessions and Separations from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Emplo," CEPR Discussion Papers 2844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Matthew T. Gustafson & Jason D. Kotter, 2023. "Higher Minimum Wages Reduce Capital Expenditures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2933-2953, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Spillover effects; Wage inequality; Wage density;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s0927537123001343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.