Minimum Wage and Labour Market Dynamics in Pakistan

Public support for raising minimum wages as a policy response to economic inequality is increasing; however, empirical evidence from highly informal and weakly regulated labour markets remains limited. This study estimates the impact of minimum wage increases on earnings and hours worked in Pakistan, drawing on 21 waves of nationally representative Labour Force Survey data between 1992 and 2021. By leveraging national time variation in statutory minimum wages and pre-policy district exposure, proxied by the proportion of workers earning below the minimum wage prior to policy changes, we find that increases in the minimum wage are associated with statistically significant but modest gains in real hourly earnings, with stronger wage pass-through observed in local labour markets with higher initial exposure. The benefits are disproportionately greater for male workers; however, the policy has achieved only limited and uneven progress in reducing gender pay disparities. On the intensive margin, minimum wage increases are associated with reductions in hours worked, particularly among women. This pattern is consistent with adjustment through hours in segments characterised by part-time work and weaker compliance. Overall, the findings indicate that minimum wage policy can increase earnings in low-wage areas under conditions of partial compliance, yet has limited capacity to address persistent structural gender inequality in highly informal contexts. These results underscore the need for stronger enforcement and complementary, gender-sensitive labour market interventions