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Analysis of the Changes in the Hungarian Tax System and Social Transfers between 2010 and 2014 Using a Behavioural Microsimulation Model


  • Gergely Baksay

    (Hungarian National Bank)

  • Balázs Csomós

    (Hungarian National Bank)


Using an updated microsimulation model developed earlier in the Hungarian National Bank, we estimate the macroeconomic, budgetary and labour market effects of government measures relating to taxes, social contributions, social transfers and gross wages since 2010. Compared to other studies, we take into account a more broad scope of measures, e.g. measures affecting gross wages and total labour cost directly. According to our estimations, the increase of the minimum wage and the so-called expected wage have fully compensated the low-income households of 2.3 million people already in the short-run for the loss of net income stemming from personal income tax and social contribution changes (especially for the abolition of tax credit).Taking into account social transfer reforms, the long-term macroeconomic effect of the measures is favourable: the level of employment may increase by approximately 2 percent, steady-state GDP level may go up by 1.5–2 and public deficit may decrease in the long run due to the government measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Gergely Baksay & Balázs Csomós, 2015. "Analysis of the Changes in the Hungarian Tax System and Social Transfers between 2010 and 2014 Using a Behavioural Microsimulation Model," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 37(supplemen), pages 29-64, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:37:y:2015:i:supplement:p:29-64
    Note: The authors express their thanks to Péter Benczúr, Gábor Kátay, Gábor Kiss, Benedek Nobilis and András Svraka. The authors are responsible for every error that remained in the study.

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2004. "Investment Behavior, User Cost and Monetary Policy Transmission - the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2004/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Péter Benczúr & Gábor Kátay & Áron Kiss & Balázs Reizer & Mihály Szoboszlai, 2011. "Analysis of changes in the tax and transfer system with a behavioural microsimulation model," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 6(3), pages 15-27, October.
    3. Péter Benczúr & Gábor Kátay & Áron Kiss, 2012. "Assessing changes of the Hungarian tax and transfer system: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach," MNB Working Papers 2012/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Elek, Peter & Köll?, János & Reizer, Balázs & Szabó, Péter A., 2011. "Detecting Wage Under-reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model," IZA Discussion Papers 6224, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Csaba Tóth G. & Péter Virovácz, 2013. "Winners and Losers. An assessment of the Hungarian flat tax reform with microsimulation," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 58(4), pages 369-385.
    6. Benczúr, P. & Kátay, G. & Kiss, A. & Rácz , O., 2014. "Income Taxation, Transfers and Labour Supply at the Extensive Margin," Working papers 487, Banque de France.
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    More about this item


    behavioural microsimulation; linked micro macro model; tax system; transfers;

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household


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