The Phillips Curve Now and Then
This paper describes the development of the "triangle" model of inflation, which holds that the rate of inflation depends on inertia, demand. and supply. This model differs from most other versions of the Phillips curve by relating inflation directly to the level and rate of change of detrended real output, and by excluding wages, the unemployment rate, and any mention of "expectations." The model identifies the ultimate source of inflation as nominal GNP growth in excess of potential real output growth and implies that a policy rule that targets excess nominal GNP growth is an essential precondition to avoiding an acceleration of inflation, Any residual instability of inflation then depends on the severity of supply shocks. The textbook and econometric versions of the triangle model were developed simultaneously in the mid-1970s. Since then there have been two empirical validations for the U. S. of the model as estimated a decade ago. First, the "sacrifice" ratio of cumulative output loss relative to the decline in inflation during the business slump of the early 1980s was predicted accurately in advance. Second, the natural unemployment rate implied by the model's estimates predicted in advance the slow acceleration of inflation that occurred in began in 1987, when the unemployment rate fell below 6 percent.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1990|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as "Comments: The Phillips Curve Now and Then." From Growth/Productivity/Unemployment, edited by Peter Diamond, pp. 207-217. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press , 1990.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1987.
"Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey,"
453, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"New Classicals and Keynesians, or the Good Guys and the Bad Guys,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(III), pages 263-273, September.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "New Classicals and Keynesians, or the Good Guys and the Bad Guys," NBER Working Papers 2982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "New Classicals And Keynesians, Or The Good Guys And The Bad Guys," RCER Working Papers 187, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Assessing the Federal Reserve's Measures of Capacity and Utilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 181-242.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1977.
"The Theory of Domestic Inflation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 128-34, February.
- George L. Perry, 1970. "Changing Labor Markets and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 411-448.
- Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.