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The Impact of Educational Attainment and Gender on the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff

  • Sandeep Mazumder

    ()

    (Wake Forest University)

Recent research has examined the link between rising educational attainment and its impact on inflation, via the equilibrium rate of unemployment. Studies such as Daly et al. (2007) have found that a measure of aggregate unemployment that has been adjusted for changes in the educational structure of the U.S. performs well in the Phillips curve, and that accounting for the level of education allows for superior estimation of group-specific Phillips curves. In this paper we consider what happens when the aggregate model is applied to a broader sample of countries, including both advanced and developing economies. We find that the education-adjusted unemployment gap does little to help estimate the inflation-unemployment tradeoff for a wider range of countries. Moreover, we find little evidence of a Phillips curve over the period of 1999 to 2008 for the developing countries in our sample. We also implement a gender-adjusted unemployment gap, and find that this variable is significant, but only because labor force shares have not changed substantially during the time period tested.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 34 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 651-662

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00372
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  1. Michael Kiley, 2010. "Output gaps," 2010 Meeting Papers 266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Peter Tulip, 2000. "Do minimum wages raise the NAIRU?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  4. Claar, Victor V, 2002. "Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," MPRA Paper 14257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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