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Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle: le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France

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Abstract

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007-2010 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption from social charges. In this article we propose simulations of this scheme based on the economic context in which it is implemented. According to our simulations, this kind of measure is pro-cyclical and therefore poorly suited to the current situation of the French economy. Furthermore, even in the case of good conditions, the scheme would not be funded. Without financing, this measure would widen the deficit and would amount to a fiscal stimulus. Financing it through an increase in levies would radically change its nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle: le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-26, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1026
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    File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2010-26.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Heyer, 2011. "The effectiveness of economic policy and position in the cycle: the case of tax reductions on overtime in France," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 364-379.
    2. Mireille Elbaum, 2011. "Le financement de la protection sociale : quelles perspectives au-delà des solutions miracles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric model; economic cycle; NAIRU; Phillips curve; hysteresis;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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