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Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Philippe Cotis
  • Renaud Méary
  • Nicolas Sobczak
Registered author(s):

    [fre] Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation Ce texte tente d'explorer - sous les angles théorique et empirique - l'hypothèse selon laquelle le taux d'intérêt réel pourrait avoir un effet durable sur le taux de chômage d'équilibre. L'analyse s'appuie sur un modèle de négociations salariales augmenté d'une demande de capital, et donc d'un processus endogène d'accumulation du capital, qui permet notamment d'évaluer les rôles respectifs de la productivité du travail et du taux d'intérêt réel dans la montée du taux de chômage d'équilibre en France depuis vingt ans. Les résultats obtenus à l'aide d'une stratégie d'estimation multivariée montrent que ce modèle semble compatible avec les données dans le cas français. À l'issue de ce travail, il apparaît que la hausse du taux de chômage d'équilibre depuis 1974, qui s'établirait aujourd'hui autour de 10 %, trouverait son origine dans l'élévation régulière du prélèvement fiscalo-social et des taux d'intérêt réels depuis le début des années quatre-vingt. [eng] Equilibrium unemployment in france : an assessment This paper makes a theoretical and empirical investigation of the assumption that the real interest rate has a permanent effect on the equilibrium unemployment rate. The model extends the Layard-Nickell-Jackman standard wage bargaining framework (1991), which is parameterised by the capital stock by including the long-run optimal capital stock determined by the real worldwide interest rate in a small open economy. This framework proves to be a very useful way to assess the role of productivity and interest rates in the rise of European equilibrium unemployment. We use the Johansen procedure to estimate and identify, on quarterly French data, the cointegration relations suggested by the theoretical model. Although the robustness of the results has to be confirmed, the model is not rejected by the data. We conclude that the rise of equilibrium unemployment in France since 1974 may result from the increase of both the tax wedge and real interest rates.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 49 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 921-935

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_3_410022
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