An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States
In this paper we test Okun's Law for individuals states from 1990 through 2012. We find the relationship between output and unemployment becomes stronger following the 2007 Great Recession. For most states the impact of a change in output on unemployment has increased and in many cases the two-to-one relationship has shifted to a three-to-two relationship. Further, we also find for most states the natural rate of unemployment has increased. We use average employment ratios by major industries to explain differences in Okun's Law across states. We find a stronger Okun effect for states with relatively large employment in professional and business services, construction, and manufacturing. Finally, we find a significant correlation between states that lean more Democrat with a stronger Okun effect.
Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
- Julien Fouquau, 2008.
"Threshold effects in Okun's Law: a panel data analysis,"
AccessEcon, vol. 5(33), pages 1-14.
- Julien Fouquau, 2008. "Threshold effects in Okun's law: a panel data analysis," Post-Print hal-00565477, HAL.
- Marie-Estelle Binet & François Facchini, 2013. "Okun's Law in the French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00812549, HAL.
- Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
- Binet Marie-estelle & Francois Facchini, 2013. "Okun's law in the french regions: a cross-regional comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 420-433.
- Marie-Estelle Binet & François Facchini, 2012. "Okun’S Law In The French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201222, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
- François Facchini & Marie-Estelle Binet, 2013. "Okun’s law in the French regions: a cross-regional comparison," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01286731, HAL.
- Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2501-2513.
- Christophe Tavéra & Roger Perman, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's law coefficient convergence in Europe," Post-Print halshs-00010273, HAL.
- Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
- Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
- Owyang, Michael T. & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
- Freeman, Donald G, 2001. "Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 511-523, October.
- Adolfo Maza & José Villaverde, 2007. "Okun's law in the Spanish regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(5), pages 1-11.
- Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?," Economics Working Paper Archive 606, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2013. "Okun's Law; Fit at 50?," IMF Working Papers 13/10, International Monetary Fund.
- Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.
- Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2011. "What is the new normal unemployment rate?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb14.
- Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2010. "Okun’s law and the unemployment surprise of 2009," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar8.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2013. "Okun's law in panels of countries and states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 191-199, January.
- Theodore M. Crone & Alan Clayton-Matthews, 2005. "Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 593-603, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.