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U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment

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  • Howard J. Wall
  • Gylfi Zoega

Abstract

Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lockstep, and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: An increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. The authors? empirical results are consistent with this and indicate that, if all else had remained constant, the reduction in the dispersion of regional unemployment rates between 1982 and 2000 would have meant a 2-percentage-point drop in the natural rate of aggregate unemployment.

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  • Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jan), pages 23-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2004:i:jan:p:23-32:n:v.86no.1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Hiroshi Fujiki & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Controlling for geographic dispersion when estimating the Japanese Phillips curve," Working Papers 2006-057, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    5. Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2008. "The Emergence of Regional Policy in Bulgaria: regional problems, EU influences and domestic constraints," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 15, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    6. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
    7. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2011. "The NRU and the Evolution of Regional Disparities in Spanish Unemployment," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0043, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    8. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.
    9. Harendra Behera & Garima Wahi & Muneesh Kapur, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," Working Papers id:11973, eSocialSciences.
    10. Owyang, Michael T. & Rapach, David E. & Wall, Howard J., 2009. "States and the business cycle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 181-194, March.
    11. Sharlywest Uwabor Eboigbe & Innocent Okwuosa, 2018. "Test of Linkage between Governance Style and National Economic Indices," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 226-238, January.

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    Unemployment; Regional economics;

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