Regional Business Cycles And The Natural Rate Of Unemployment
Monetary policy is nearly always formulated on the basis of national-level macroeconomic data. This is in spite of the well-known observation that its impact typically differs across regions and industries. The paper shows how policy making might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Our model is motivated by micro-econometric evidence that shows the response of wage inflation to vacancies to be non-linear: an increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. Based on this observation, we use a model of the natural rate of unemployment to show that the greater is the dispersion of regional vacancy rates, the higher is the national inflation rate. Our empirical results show that changes in the distribution of regional unemployment in the United States in the 1990s is attributed, in part, to a falling natural rate.
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| Length: | |
| Date of creation: | Nov 2002 |
| Handle: | RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp19_zoega |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Kalkofnsvegi 1, 150 Reykjavik Phone: 569-9600 Fax: 569-9605 Web page: http://www.sedlabanki.is/ Email: More information through EDIRC
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- Layard, R. & Nickell, S., 1991.
"Unemployment in the OECD Countries,"
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99130, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Richard Layard & Stephen Nickell, 1992. "Unemployment in the OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0081, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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- Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 2000. "Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles," Working Papers 00-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- S. Lael Brainard & David M. Cutler, 1993. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 219-243.
- Albert Ma, Ching-to & Weiss, Andrew M., 1993. "A signaling theory of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 135-157, January.
- Ching-to Albert Ma & Andrew M. Weiss, 1990. "A Signaling Theory of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 3565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Albert Ma, C.T. & Weiss, A.M., 1991. "A Signaling Theory of Unemployment," Papers 7, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
- Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 1997. "Growth, wealth and the natural rate: Is Europe's jobs crisis a growth crisis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 549-557, April.
- Walter Y. Oi, 1962. "Labor as a Quasi-Fixed Factor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 538-538. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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