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The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations

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  • Alberto Plazzi
  • Walter Torous
  • Rossen Valkanov

Abstract

We estimate the cross-sectional dispersions of returns and growth in rents for commercial real estate using data on U.S. metropolitan areas over the sample period 1986 to 2002. The cross-sectional dispersion of returns is a measure of the risk faced by commercial real estate investors. We document that, for apartments, offices, industrial and retail properties, the cross-sectional dispersions are time varying. Interestingly, their time-series fluctuations can be explained by macroeconomic variables such as the term and credit spreads, inflation and the short rate of interest. The cross-sectional dispersions also exhibit an asymmetrically larger response to negative economics shocks, which may be attributable to credit channel effects impacting the availability of external debt financing to commercial real estate investments. Finally, we find a statistically reliable positive relation between commercial real estate returns and their cross-sectional dispersion, suggesting that idiosyncratic fluctuations are priced in the commercial real estate market. Copyright 2008 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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  • Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:36:y:2008:i:3:p:403-439
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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    2. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Zhang, Jun, 2011. "“Fire Sales” in housing market: is the house-searching process similar to a theme park visit?," MPRA Paper 29127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel Melser & Adrian D. Lee, 2014. "Estimating the Excess Returns to Housing at a Disaggregated Level: An Application to Sydney 2003–2011," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 756-790, September.
    4. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Jun Zhang, 2011. "¡§Fire Sales¡¨ in Housing Market: Is the House- Search Process Similar to a Theme Park Visit?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 311-329.
    5. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9587-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Stephen Lee & Giacomo Morri, 2015. "Real estate fund active management," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 494-516, September.
    7. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.

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