IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/anderf/qt8c68m5tk.html

13-04 Expected Returns and the Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate

Author

Listed:
  • Plazzi, Alberto
  • Torous, Walt
  • Valkanov, Rossen

Abstract

We investigate whether the cap rate, that is, the rent-price ratio in commercial real estate incorporates information about future expected real estate returns and future growth in rents. Relying on transactions data spanning several years across fifty-three metropolitan areas in the U.S., we find that the cap rate captures fluctuations in expected returns for apartments, retail, as well as industrial properties. For offices, by contrast, the cap rate does not forecast returns even though adsditional evidence reveals that expected returns on offices are also time-varying. We link this varying success of the cap rate in forecastings commercial property returns to differences in the stochastic properties of their rental growth rates. The growth in office rents has a higher correlation with expected returns and is more volatile than for other property types. Taken together, these characteristics diminish the correlation between the cap rate and the future returns to offices.

Suggested Citation

  • Plazzi, Alberto & Torous, Walt & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "13-04 Expected Returns and the Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8c68m5tk, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt8c68m5tk
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8c68m5tk.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    2. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
    3. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    4. William N. Goetzmann & Bradford Case & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Global Real Estate Markets: Cycles And Fundamentals," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm116, Yale School of Management.
    5. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    6. Karl E. Case, 2000. "Real Estate and Macroeconomy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 119-162.
    7. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Housing Collateral and Consumption Insurance Across US Regions," 2004 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    9. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1125-1165 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    12. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    13. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    15. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    16. Shefrin, Hersh M. & Statman, Meir, 1984. "Explaining investor preference for cash dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 253-282, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross‐Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June.
    2. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    3. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
    4. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    5. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2025. "Predicting the equity premium around the globe: Comprehensive evidence from a large sample," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 208-228.
    6. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
    7. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    8. Docherty, Paul & Chan, Howard & Easton, Steve, 2013. "Can we treat empirical regularities as state variables in the ICAPM? Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 107-124.
    9. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
    10. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    11. Lo, Andrew W. & Mackinlay, A. Craig, 1997. "Maximizing Predictability In The Stock And Bond Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 102-134, January.
    12. Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    14. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    15. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.
    16. Nobel Prize Committee, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    17. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    18. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp677, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    19. Qi Liu & Libin Tao & Weixing Wu & Jianfeng Yu, 2017. "Short- and Long-Run Business Conditions and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4137-4157, December.
    20. Umlandt, Dennis, 2023. "Score-driven asset pricing: Predicting time-varying risk premia based on cross-sectional model performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt8c68m5tk. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aguclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.