IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/anderf/qt8c68m5tk.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

13-04 Expected Returns and the Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate

Author

Listed:
  • Plazzi, Alberto
  • Torous, Walt
  • Valkanov, Rossen

Abstract

We investigate whether the cap rate, that is, the rent-price ratio in commercial real estate incorporates information about future expected real estate returns and future growth in rents. Relying on transactions data spanning several years across fifty-three metropolitan areas in the U.S., we find that the cap rate captures fluctuations in expected returns for apartments, retail, as well as industrial properties. For offices, by contrast, the cap rate does not forecast returns even though adsditional evidence reveals that expected returns on offices are also time-varying. We link this varying success of the cap rate in forecastings commercial property returns to differences in the stochastic properties of their rental growth rates. The growth in office rents has a higher correlation with expected returns and is more volatile than for other property types. Taken together, these characteristics diminish the correlation between the cap rate and the future returns to offices.

Suggested Citation

  • Plazzi, Alberto & Torous, Walt & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "13-04 Expected Returns and the Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8c68m5tk, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt8c68m5tk
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/8c68m5tk.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradford Case & William Goetzmann & K. Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Global Real Estate Markets: Cycles And Fundamentals," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm20, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2001.
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79.
    3. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    4. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
    5. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    6. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    7. Karl E. Case, 2000. "Real Estate and Macroeconomy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 119-162.
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "A Catering Theory of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1125-1165, June.
    9. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    12. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    14. Shefrin, Hersh M. & Statman, Meir, 1984. "Explaining investor preference for cash dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 253-282, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt8c68m5tk. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aguclus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.