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Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence

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  • SEI-WAN KIM
  • BONG-SOO LEE

Abstract

"We study how three interrelated phenomena-excess stock returns and risk relation, risk aversion, and asymmetric volatility movement-change over business cycles. Using an asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean model and a Markov switching model, we find that excess stock return increases and asymmetric volatility movement is weakened during boom periods. This suggests that investors become more risk-averse during boom periods (i.e., procyclical risk aversion), which we confirm using a calibration of a simple equilibrium model". ("JEL "C32, E32, G12) Copyright (c) 2007 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • Sei-Wan Kim & Bong-Soo Lee, 2008. "Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 131-148, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:46:y:2008:i:2:p:131-148
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique Salvador, 2012. "The Risk-Return Trade-Off in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 106-128, November.
    2. Łukasz Kwiatkowski, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of a Regime Switching In-Mean Effect for the Polish Stock Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(4), pages 187-219, December.
    3. Arisoy, Yakup Eser, 2010. "Volatility risk and the value premium: Evidence from the French stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 975-983, May.
    4. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
    5. repec:eee:jbfina:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
    7. Viorica Chirila & Ciprian Chirila, 2014. "The Use of Risk and Return for Testing the Stability of Stock Markets," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(2), pages 182-192, April.
    8. Enrique Salvador, 2012. "The Risk-Return Trade-Off in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 106-128, November.
    9. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Papers 1410.6005, arXiv.org.
    10. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
    11. Kim, Sei-Wan & Lee, Bong-Soo & Kim, Young-Min, 2014. "Who mimics whom in the equity fund market? Evidence from the Korean equity fund market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 199-218.
    12. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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