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Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics

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  • Liu, Xiaochun

Abstract

A general partial risk-return relation is derived based on return decomposition to allowing for the effect of time-varying skewness and kurtosis on the risk-return trade-off. Empirically estimated for 12 international financial markets, the proposed risk-return trade-off is significantly positive even after controlling for time-varying higher moments. Moreover, the stochastic dominance test reveals that modeling time-varying skewness significantly lowers the level of the risk-return trade-off. More importantly, the empirical evidence shows that the risk-return trade-off is countercyclical in the U.S. markets, consistent with the theoretical habit-formation model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), whereas the risk-return trade-offs in European and emerging markets appear to be procyclical over a 12-month horizon, but countercyclical for a shorter horizon of 3 months. Finally, common macroeconomic variables can significantly explain risk-return trade-off dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.015
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    Keywords

    Return decomposition; Stochastic dominance test; Time-varying skewness and kurtosis; Predictive panel regressions; Cyclical variations;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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