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Time-Varying Risk-Return Trade-off in the Stock Market

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  • HUI GUO
  • ZIJUN WANG
  • JIAN YANG

Abstract

We uncover a strong comovement of the stock market risk–return trade‐off with the consumption–wealth ratio (CAY). The finding reflects time‐varying investment opportunities rather than countercyclical aggregate relative risk aversion. Specifically, the partial risk–return trade‐off is positive and constant when we control for CAY as a proxy for investment opportunities. Moreover, conditional market variance scaled by CAY is negatively priced in the cross‐section of stock returns. Our results are consistent with a limited stock market participation model, in which shareholders require an illiquidity premium that increases with CAY, in addition to the risk premium that is proportional to conditional market variance.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2013. "Time-Varying Risk-Return Trade-off in the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 623-650, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:4:p:623-650
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    Cited by:

    1. Surya Chelikani & Frank P. D'Souza, 2014. "The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure on Market Integration," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(4), pages 43-62.
    2. Hong, Seok Young & Linton, Oliver, 2020. "Nonparametric estimation of infinite order regression and its application to the risk-return tradeoff," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 389-424.
    3. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "The long-run risk premium in the intertemporal CAPM: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2014. "Crude oil moments and PNG stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 222-235.
    5. Nyberg, Henri & Savva, Christos S., 2026. "Risk-return trade-off in international stock returns: Skewness and business cycles," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-60.
    6. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    7. Barroso, Pedro & Maio, Paulo, 2024. "The risk–return tradeoff among equity factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang, 2016. "An examination of the flow characteristics of crude oil: Evidence from risk-neutral moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 213-223.
    9. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
    11. Antell, Jan & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2023. "Countercyclical and time-varying reward to risk and the equity premium," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Alemany, Nuria & Aragó, Vicent & Salvador, Enrique, 2025. "Uncovering the risk-return trade-off through ridge regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Shoka Hayaki, 2024. "The Impact of Individual Loss Aversion on Market Risk-Return Trade-off: A Non-linear Approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2024-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    14. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Can macroeconomic dynamics explain the time variation of risk–return trade-offs in the U.S. financial market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 275-293.
    15. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte & Savva, Christos S., 2016. "Risk-return trade-off for European stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-103.
    16. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2022. "Return decomposition over the business cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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