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Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment

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  • Jim Clayton

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  • David Ling

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  • Andy Naranjo

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Abstract

This paper investigates the role of fundamentals and investor sentiment in commercial real estate valuation. In real estate markets, heterogeneous properties trade in illiquid, highly segmented and informationally inefficient local markets. Moreover, the inability to short sell private real estate restricts the ability of sophisticated traders to enter the market and eliminate mispricing. These characteristics would seem to render private real estate markets highly susceptible to sentiment-induced mispricing. Using error correction models to carefully model potential lags in the adjustment process, this paper extends previous work on cap rate dynamics by examining the extent to which fundamentals and investor sentiment help to explain the time-series variation in national-level cap rates. We find evidence that investor sentiment impacts pricing, even after controlling for changes in expected rental growth, equity risk premiums, T-bond yields, and lagged adjustments from long run equilibrium. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:1:p:5-37
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9130-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister, 2009. "Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 359-383, October.
    2. Jack Corgel & Crocker Liu & Robert White, 2015. "Determinants of Hotel Property Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 415-439, October.
    3. Nai Jia Lee & Tien Foo Sing & Dinh Hoang Tran, 2013. "REIT Share Price and NAV Deviations: Noise or Sentiment?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 28-47.
    4. Prashant Das & Julia Freybote & Gianluca Marcato, 2015. "An Investigation into Sentiment-Induced Institutional Trading Behavior and Asset Pricing in the REIT Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 160-189, August.
    5. Huang, Daisy J. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tse, Chung-Yi, 2017. "What account for the differences in rent-price ratio and turnover rate? A search-and-matching approach," MPRA Paper 76864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Prashant Das & Alan Ziobrowski & N. Coulson, 2015. "Online Information Search, Market Fundamentals and Apartment Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 480-502, November.
    7. Chun-Chang Lee & Hsueh-Ling Fan, 2016. "The Impact of Administrative Characteristics and Residential Types on Income Capitalization Rates in Taipei, Taiwan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(10), pages 602-619, October.
    8. Batsirai Winmore Mazviona, 2015. "Measuring Investor Sentiment on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(2), pages 21-32, June.
    9. Paul Goebel & David Harrison & Jeffrey Mercer & Ryan Whitby, 2013. "REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 564-581, October.
    10. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2015. "Contagion Channels between Real Estate and Financial Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 101-138, March.
    11. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2013. "Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets," MPRA Paper 46346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Devaney, Steven & Holtemöller, Oliver & Schulz, Rainer, 2012. "Efficiency in the UK Commercial Property Market: A Long-run Perspective," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Abdullah Yavas & Yildiray Yildirim, 2011. "Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets: A Dynamic Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-29, January.
    14. Steffen Heinig & Anupam Nanda & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2016. "Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    15. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    16. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    17. repec:kap:jrefec:v:54:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9581-0 is not listed on IDEAS

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