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The Present Value Model with Time-Varying Discount Rates: Implications for Commercial Property Valuation and Investment Decisions

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  • Geltner, David
  • Mei, Jianping

Abstract

A vector autoregressive model is developed for predicting cash flow and returns in the private (unsecuritized) commercial property markets. The model predicts both of these variables quite well during the sample period. The forecasting model is then used to develop a simple "buy/sell" rule for identifying property market value peaks and troughs. An improved present value model, taking account of the predictability of property returns, is described and found to track historical market values much more closely than does either the appraisal-based index or the traditional present value model with constant expected returns. Analysis in this paper suggests that most of the change in commercial property market values has been due to changes in expected returns rather than to changes in expected future operating cash flows. Copyright 1995 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Geltner, David & Mei, Jianping, 1995. "The Present Value Model with Time-Varying Discount Rates: Implications for Commercial Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 119-135, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:119-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 341-381, September.
    2. Sujata Behera, 2020. "Does the EVA valuation model explain the market value of equity better under changing required return than constant required return?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 347-368.
    4. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
    5. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    6. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2014. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 91-103.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 562-578.
    8. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    9. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    10. Patric Hendershott & Robert J. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2005. "Evidence on Rationality in Commercial Property Markets: An Interpretation and Critique," NBER Working Papers 11329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Alex Minne & Marc Francke & David Geltner & Robert White, 2020. "Using Revisions as a Measure of Price Index Quality in Repeat-Sales Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 514-553, May.
    12. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 35-80, January.
    13. Dragana Cvijanović & Stanimira Milcheva & Alex Minne, 2022. "Preferences of Institutional Investors in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 321-359, August.
    14. Christian Rehring & Steffen Sebastian, 2011. "Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 291-315, June.
    15. Lyndsey Rolheiser & Dorinth van Dijk & Alex van de Minne, 2018. "Does Housing Vintage Matter? Exploring the Historic City Center of Amsterdam," DNB Working Papers 617, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Patric H. Hendershott, "undated". "Systematic Valuation Errors and Property Cycles: A Clinical Study of the Sydney Office Market," Research in Financial Economics 9611, Ohio State University.

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