Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions
The dramatic decline in commercial property values in recent years has changed popular perception about real estate investment risk. This paper aims to generate new insights into real estate investment risk and its implications for real estate valuation. It shows that the risk premium on unsecuritized commercial real estate varies over time and is strongly related to general economic conditions. A vector autoregressive model developed to forecast real estate returns reveals that time variation in real estate risk is partly predictable, and thus can help us to forecast future movements in commercial property values. The analysis suggests that in periods surrounding major market movements, changes in commercial property prices are driven more by changes in expected (required) returns than by changes in current and expected future property income. Changing expected returns may reflect rational revisions of real estate investment risk, or alternatively investor psychology or sentiment.
Volume (Year): 12 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323|
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
|Order Information:|| Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323|
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
- Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
- Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
- Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485.
- Geltner, David & Mei, Jianping, 1995. "The Present Value Model with Time-Varying Discount Rates: Implications for Commercial Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 119-135, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)