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The stock market and aggregate employment

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  • Long Chen
  • Lu Zhang

Abstract

We study the interactions between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast long-horizon growth in the marginal benefit of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that long-horizon payroll growth and change in unemployment rate are predictable with risk premium proxies. Lagged payroll growth and change in unemployment rate also forecast stock market excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2009. "The stock market and aggregate employment," NBER Working Papers 15219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15219
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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