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Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles

Traditional real estate valuation models stabilize cash flow variables in a single- or multi-year pro forma, assume efficient markets, and impute property return/risk expectations into a current overall market capitalization rate to determine value. This traditional valuation framework is biased toward trend analysis and often assumes constant annual changes in rents and expenses and constant terminal value capitalization rates over a seven-to-ten-year projection period. Economic cycles are not explicitly addressed by the valuation framework or models. This study uses a cycle valuation model to evaluate linkages between real estate supply and demand cycles, equilibrium price cycles, inflation cycles, rent rate catch-up cycles, and property life cycles; translates their effects on cash flow variables; and demonstrates their significant impact on asset value. The cycle model results are then compared to those produced from traditional borrower and lender "trend driven" valuation models. The study results suggest that appraisers should develop cash flow models that explicitly incorporate cycle impacts in order to produce realistic present value estimates and valuation conclusions. Further, the market research process must be redefined and reorganized to produce information and data for use in cycle models.

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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 9 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 455-486

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:4:1994:p:455-486
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/Email:

Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


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  1. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
  2. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
  3. Leo Grebler & Leland S. Burns, 1982. "Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-151.
  4. Kenneth M. Lusht, 1978. "Inflation and Real Estate Investment Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 6(1), pages 37-49.
  5. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Waldo L. Born & James R. Webb, 1990. "Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 177-194.
  6. David Hartzell & John S. Hekman & Mike E. Miles, 1987. "Real Estate Returns and Inflation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 617-637.
  7. Halbert C. Smith, 1986. "Inconsistencies in Appraisal Theory and Practice," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17.
  8. David J. Hartzell & David G. Shulma & Vice President, 1987. "Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 85-95.
  9. S. Michael Giliberto, 1988. "A Note on the use of Appraisal Data in Indexes of Performance Measurement," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 77-83.
  10. Terry V. Grissom & David Hartzell & Crocker H. Liu, 1987. "An Approach to Industrial Real Estate Market Segmentation and Valuation Using the Arbitrage Pricing Paradigm," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 199-219.
  11. George W. Gau & Ko Wang, 1990. "A Further Examination of Appraisal Data and the Potential Bias in Real Estate Return Indexes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-48.
  12. James R. Frew & G. Donald Jud, 1988. "The Vacancy Rate and Rent Levels in the Commercial Office Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8.
  13. Charles H. Wurtzebach & Glenn R. Mueller & Donna Machi, 1991. "The Impact of Inflation and Vacancy on Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(2), pages 153-168.
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