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The Analysis of Real Estate Cycles, Regime Segmentation and Structural Change Using Multiple Indices (or A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change)

This article explores real estate cycles and structural change at an overall industry level, focusing on three key questions. First, are real estate cycle stages distinct and observable? Second, can the cycle stages be modeled using variables and relationships that hold for extended periods? Third, can the impact of exogenous shocks that cause structural changes in the market be monitored and modeled? The results of the research are generally positive, suggesting that indeed the variables and relationships that distinguish various real estate cycle stages can be isolated, and are sufficiently stable to help model cyclical changes. Furthermore, the research suggests it is possible to track key exogenous shocks that trigger structural changes that affect cycle models.

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File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n01/v18p097.pdf
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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 97-130

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:97-130
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
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Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


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  1. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
  2. Friedman, Harris C., 1971. "Real Estate Investment and Portfolio Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 861-874, March.
  3. Jeffrey D. Fisher & George H. Lentz, 1986. "Tax Reform and the Value of Real Estate Income Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 287-315.
  4. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1993. "Smoothing Bias in In-House Appraisal-Based Returns of Open-End Real Estate Funds," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 157-170.
  5. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-64, September.
  6. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481.
  7. K. C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1990. "Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 431-452.
  8. Fogler, H Russell & Granito, Michael R & Smith, Laurence R, 1985. " A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 711-19, July.
  9. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Marshall Pomer & E. Scott Urdang, 1991. "Determinants of the Rate of Return for Nonresidential Real Estate: Inflation Expectations and Market Adjustment Lags," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 52-69.
  10. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
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