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Determinants of the Rate of Return for Nonresidential Real Estate: Inflation Expectations and Market Adjustment Lags

Author

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  • Yoon Dokko
  • Robert H. Edelstein
  • Marshall Pomer
  • E. Scott Urdang

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic forces that determine the real rate of return for nonresidential real estate. Our analysis shows that the intermarket variation in the real rate of return is statistically significant, and the rate of return differs by land use and market area, as well as over time in response to changes in macro‐economic conditions. We use inflation variables as surrogates for changes in macroeconomic conditions over time. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that nonresidential real estate may not outperform expected inflation. We believe that the impact of expected inflation (and other macroeconomic variables) on real estate rates of return depends upon the interaction of the macro‐environment and specific local real estate market conditions. Finally, our empirical evidence suggests that the effects of a given shock dissipate rather quickly in most markets when we take into account locational and property use differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Marshall Pomer & E. Scott Urdang, 1991. "Determinants of the Rate of Return for Nonresidential Real Estate: Inflation Expectations and Market Adjustment Lags," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 52-69, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:19:y:1991:i:1:p:52-69
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00540
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    Cited by:

    1. Taderera, Marimo & Akinsomi, Omokolade, 2020. "Is commercial real estate a good hedge against inflation? Evidence from South Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Doina Chichernea & Norm Miller & Jeff Fisher & Bob White & Michael Sklarz, 2008. "ACross-Sectional Analysis of CapRates by MSA," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 249-292.
    3. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    4. Terry V. Grissom & James R. DeLisle, 1999. "The Analysis of Real Estate Cycles, Regime Segmentation and Structural Change Using Multiple Indices (or A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change)," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 97-130.
    5. Chun-Chang Lee & Hsueh-Ling Fan, 2016. "The Impact of Administrative Characteristics and Residential Types on Income Capitalization Rates in Taipei, Taiwan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(10), pages 602-619, October.
    6. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1997. "Real Estate Diversification Benefits," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(2), pages 117-136.
    7. Stanley D. Smith & Larry R. Woodward, 1996. "The Effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and Regional Economies on Apartment Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(3), pages 259-276.
    8. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
    9. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1993. "Smoothing Bias in In-House Appraisal-Based Returns of Open-End Real Estate Funds," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 157-170.
    10. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    11. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.
    12. Stanley D. Smith & Larry R. Woodward & Craig T. Schulman, 2000. "The Effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and Overbuilt Markets on Commercial Office Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 301-320.

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