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Patterns of Office Employment Cycles



Based upon an the analysis of quarterly office employment and total employment changes from 1975 through 1994, this research concludes that for a majority of the fifty metropolitan areas, office employment cycles are converging towards seven year cycles. However, many of the patterns are emerging and for one-third of the cities, the office employment changes are a random walk. While changes in office employment and total employment are correlated, neither series lags or leads the other. Office employment grew faster than total employment, but office employment changes were more volatile.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Shilton, 1998. "Patterns of Office Employment Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 339-354.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:15:n:3:1998:p:339-354

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    2. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436.
    3. Leon G. Shilton & Janet K. Tandy, 1993. "The Information Precision of CBD Office Vacancy Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 421-444.
    4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    5. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 336-358, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


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