IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v19n032016p265-296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Five Property Types' Real Estate Cycles as Markov Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Richard D. Evans

    (University of Memphis)

  • Glenn R. Mueller

    (University of Denver)

Abstract

Metro market real estate cycles for office, industrial, retail, apartment, and hotel properties may be specified as first order Markov chains, which allow analysts to use a well-developed application, ¡§staying time¡¨. Anticipations for time spent at each cycle point are consistent with the perception of analysts that these cycle changes speed up, slow down, and pause over time. We find that these five different property types in U.S. markets appear to have different first order Markov chain specifications, with different staying time characteristics. Each of the five property types have their longest mean staying time at the troughs of recessions. Moreover, industrial and office markets have much longer mean staying times in very poor trough conditions. Most of the shortest mean staying times are in hyper supply and recession phases, with the range across property types being narrow in these cycle points. Analysts and investors should be able to use this research to better estimate future occupancy and rent estimates in their discounted cash flow (DCF) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard D. Evans & Glenn R. Mueller, 2016. "Five Property Types' Real Estate Cycles as Markov Chains," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 265-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:19:n:03:2016:p:265-296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/v19n3-five-property-types-real-estate-cycles-as-markov-chains.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
    2. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436, December.
    3. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Waldo L. Born & James R. Webb, 1990. "Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 177-194.
    4. Glenn R. Mueller, 1999. "Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 131-150.
    5. William C. Wheaton, 1987. "The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 281-299, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glenn R. Mueller, 1999. "Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 131-150.
    2. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92.
    3. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084.
    4. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    5. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
    6. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    7. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
    8. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
    9. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
    10. G. Donald Jud & John D. Benjamin & G. Stacy Sirmans, 1996. "What Do We Know about Apartments and Their Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(3), pages 243-258.
    11. N. B. Udoekanem & J. I. Ighalo, 2016. "An assessment of the relationship between office rent and vacancy rate in Abuja, Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 77-83, March.
    12. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Office Rent Processes: The Case of U.S. Metropolitan Markets," Working Paper 8664, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    13. Jason Barr, 2010. "Skyscrapers and the Skyline: Manhattan, 1895–2004," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 567-597, September.
    14. Laurin Frederic, 2011. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," EERC Working Paper Series 11/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    15. Xin Zhang & David Geltner & Richard Neufville, 2018. "System Dynamics Modeling of Chinese Urban Housing Markets for Pedagogical and Policy Analysis Purposes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 476-501, October.
    16. Leon Shilton, 1998. "Patterns of Office Employment Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 339-354.
    17. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 336-358, October.
    18. Frederic Laurin & John-John D'Argensio & Thea Goginashvili, 2010. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," Working Papers 10-001, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.
    19. Mark Gallagher & Asieh Mansour, 2000. "An Analysis of Hotel Real Estate Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 133-164.
    20. Jean-Jacques Grannelle, 1996. "Le marché des bureaux. Une revue des modèles économétriques," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 59(1), pages 167-211.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Estate Cycle; Markov Chain; Commercial Real Estate; Staying Times?;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:19:n:03:2016:p:265-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.