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Le marché des bureaux. Une revue des modèles économétriques

  • Jean-Jacques Grannelle
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    [fre] Comme tout bien immobilier le bureau est un bien durable et l'on peut dissocier le marché des services rendus par le bien et le marché des actifs. Les modèles américains qui ont été élaborés dans ce domaine pour l'analyse et la prévision retiennent toutefois pour l'essentiel le marché des services. Ils sont construits selon les cas au niveau interurbain, urbain ou intraurbain. En général ils reposent d'abord sur des identités comptables explicitant respectivement l'absorption du marché, le taux de vacance courant et l'état du parc. Les relations de comportement prennent en compte usuellement une équation de demande, une équation d'offre et, le cas échéant, une équation d'ajustement du loyer. La demande désirée dépend des variables d'emploi et du loyer réel. La construction désirée dépend de l'état du parc, du loyer réel et de l'absorption du marché. L'équation d'ajustement du loyer, de son côté, met en évidence la relation inverse entre variations du loyer et taux de vacance. Les modèles rendent bien compte de la cyclicité du marché des bureaux, qui est largement tributaire de l'ajustement progressif du loyer à la vacance. En revanche le caractère spéculatif du marché des bureaux, particulièrement apparent au cours du dernier cycle de l'immobilier, est encore peu illustré parles modèles, car ces derniers ne retiennent pas dans le cas général le marché des actifs. Au total une modélisation conjointe du marché des services et du marché des actifs serait particulièrement souhaitable en immobilier de bureau, comme le montre du reste une analyse élémentaire de statique comparative. [eng] As it is the case with any real estate sector, offices are durable goods and it is possible to separate the market for office use from the market for office assets. However the American analytical and forecasting models which have been developed in this field of research, essentially take into account the market for office use. These models may be interurban, urban or intraurban. Generally they incorporate several accounting identities including market absorption, the current vacancy rate and the stock of space. The behavioural relationships are usually represented by a demand equation, a supply equation and sometimes a rental adjustment equation. Desired demand depends on employment variables and real rents. On the supply side, desired construction depends on the stock of space, real rents and market absorption. As for the rental adjustment equation it highlights an inverse relationship between rent changes and vacancy rate. The models clearly point out the cyclical features of office markets which greatly depend on gradual rent vacancy adjustment. Inversely the speculative character of office markets which is particularly evident in the latest real estate cycle, is not taken into account by the models yet, because they usually ignore the markets for office assets. Finally models associating the markets for office use and those for office assets should be provided, as clearly shown by a simple comparative static analysis.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ofce.1996.1438
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_59_1_1438
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 59 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 167-211

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_59_1_1438
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1996.1438
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce

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    1. J M Clapp, 1983. "A Model of Public Policy toward Office Relocation," Environment and Planning A, SAGE Publishing, vol. 15(10), pages 1299-1309, October.
    2. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436.
    3. Edwin S. Mills, 1992. "Office Rent Determinants in the Chicago Area," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 273-287.
    4. Bertrand Renaud, 1995. "Le cycle global de l'immobilier, 1985-1994 : ses causes et ses leçons," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(2), pages 187-215.
    5. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
    6. P.W. Daniels, 1977. "Office Location in the British Conurbations: Trends and Strategies," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 261-274, October.
    7. Karl E. Case, 1986. "The market for single-family homes in the Boston area," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 38-48.
    8. Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458.
    9. Arthur A. Eubank & C. R. Sirmans, 1979. "The Price Adjustment Mechanism for Rental Housing in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(1), pages 163-168.
    10. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
    11. Rosen, Kenneth T & Smith, Lawrence B, 1983. "The Price-Adjustment Process for Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 779-86, September.
    12. John Clapp & Henry O. Pollakowski & Lloyd Lynford, 1992. "Intrametropolitan Location and Office Market Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 229-258.
    13. Natacha Aveline, 1995. "La bulle foncière au Japon," Post-Print halshs-00393845, HAL.
    14. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    15. John L. Glascock & Shirin Jahanian & C. F. Sirmans, 1990. "An Analysis of Office Market Rents: Some Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 105-119.
    16. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547.
    17. William C. Wheaton, 1987. "The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 281-299.
    18. Jean-Pierre Berthier, 1992. "Une analyse sur 20 ans de l'activité du bâtiment-travaux publics," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 253(1), pages 3-13.
    19. Jeffrey D. Fisher, 1992. "Integrating Research on Markets for Space and Capital†," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 161-180.
    20. J M Clapp, 1983. "A model of public policy toward office relocation," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 15(10), pages 1299-1309, October.
    21. Jos Janssen & Bert Kruijt & Barrie Needham, 1994. "The Honeycomb Cycle in Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(2), pages 237-252.
    22. Vincent Renard, 1996. "Quelques caractéristiques des marchés fonciers et immobiliers," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 294(1), pages 89-97.
    23. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
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