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Estimation of the Rental Adjustment Process

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  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Bryan D. Macgregor
  • Raymond Y.C. Tse

Abstract

Rental adjustment equations have been estimated for a quarter century. In the U.S., models have used the deviation of the actual vacancy rate from the natural rate as the main explanatory variable, while in the UK, drivers of the demand for space have dominated the estimation. The recent papers of Hendershott (1996) and Hendershott, Lizieri and Matysiak (HLM, 1999) fall into the former category. We re-estimate these equations using alternative formulations and present evidence that changes in real interest rates were not capitalized into Sydney and London real land prices. We then derive a model incorporating supply and demand factors within an Error Correction framework, and show how the U.S. and UK traditions are special cases of this more general formulation. We next estimate this equation using data from the City of London office market. Our initial specification of this more generalized model is greatly superior to the vacancy rate model. Finally, we estimate a two-equation variant with a separate vacancy rate equation; this model also performs much better than that of HLM. Importantly, our model passes standard modern econometric requirements for unit roots and co-integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. Macgregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2001. "Estimation of the Rental Adjustment Process," ERES eres2001_178, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2001_178
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnott, Richard & Igarashi, Masahiro, 2000. "Rent control, mismatch costs and search efficiency," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 249-288, May.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. Stuart A. Gabriel & Frank E. Nothaft, 1988. "Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 419-429.
    4. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387.
    5. Rosen, Kenneth T & Smith, Lawrence B, 1983. "The Price-Adjustment Process for Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 779-786, September.
    6. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 51-67, January.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott & Edward J. Kane, 1992. "CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE 1980s COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION BOOM," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 5(1), pages 61-70.
    8. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436.
    9. Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458.
    10. Hendershott, Patric H, 2000. "Property Asset Bubbles: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 67-81, January.
    11. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    2. Gunnelin, Åke & Söderberg, Bo, 2002. "Term Structures in the Office Rental Market in Stockholm," SIFR Research Report Series 6, Institute for Financial Research.
    3. Clark, David & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2016. "Determinants of industrial property rents in the Chicago metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 34-45.
    4. Peter Englund & Åke Gunnelin & Patric H. Hendershott & Bo Söderberg, 2005. "Adjustment in Property Space Markets: Estimates from the Stockholm Office Market," ERES eres2005_166, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:120-140 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kennedy, Gerard & Sheenan, Lisa & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Modelling Irish Rents: Recent Developments in Historical Context," Economic Letters 14/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. V. Öven & Dilek Pekdemir, 2006. "Office Rent Determinants Utilising Factor Analysis—A Case Study for İstanbul," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 51-73, August.
    8. K. W. Chau & S. K. Wong, 2016. "Information Asymmetry and the Rent and Vacancy Rate Dynamics in the Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 162-183, August.
    9. Franz Fuerst & Anna-Maija Grandy, "undated". ""Oft Expectation Fails": A Time-Series Analysis of Construction Starts in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2010-13, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    10. V.Atilla Oven & Dilek Pekdemir, 2004. "A comparison between office rent determinants of Istanbul and other major metropolitan areas," ERSA conference papers ersa04p166, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Cheong, Chee Seng & Gerlach, Richard & Stevenson, Simon & Wilson, Patrick J. & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2009. "Equity and fixed income markets as drivers of securitised real estate," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 103-111, April.
    12. John McCartney, 2012. "Short and long-run rent adjustment in the Dublin office market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 201-226, April.
    13. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    14. Voigtländer, Michael, 2010. "The Link between the Office Market and Labour Market in Germany," MPRA Paper 23994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Maria Ibanez & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2013. "Commercial Property Rent Dynamics in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: An Examination of Office, Industrial, Flex and Retail Space," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 232-259, February.
    16. Jonathan Wiley & Justin Benefield & Ken Johnson, 2010. "Green Design and the Market for Commercial Office Space," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 228-243, August.
    17. Jonathan A. Wiley, 2014. "Gross Lease Premiums," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 606-626, September.
    18. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss, 2012. "Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 570-590, May.
    19. Alain Coen & Benoît Lefebvre & Arnaud Simon, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Post-Print hal-01778910, HAL.
    20. Honglin Wang & Chu Zhang & Weihang Dai, 2013. "Rental Adjustment and Housing Prices: Evidence from Hong Kong's Residential Property Market," Working Papers 012013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    21. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
    22. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 80-101, July.
    23. Vanessa Gapriotti Nadalin, 2015. "Residential Vacancy In City Center: The Case Of São Paulo," Discussion Papers 0201, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    24. Vanessa Gapriotti Nadalin, 2014. "Residential Vacancy in City Center: The Case of São Paulo," Discussion Papers 1987a, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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