IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i8p360-d609511.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Commercial Property Rent Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Roddy Allan

    (Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), 7/F One Taikoo Place, Hong Kong, China)

  • Ervi Liusman

    (School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7/F Cheng Yu Tung Building, 12 Chak Cheung Street, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong, China)

  • Teddy Lu

    (Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), 7/F One Taikoo Place, Hong Kong, China)

  • Desmond Tsang

    (Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University, 1001 Sherbrook Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 1G5, Canada)

Abstract

This paper utilizes timely proprietary data to examine the contemporary impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on commercial property rent dynamics in the Asia–Pacific region. Given that the Asia–Pacific region was the first to be impacted by the public health crisis, it is important to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the real estate markets in this region and to assess how the region has been recovering since then. Our regression analysis, controlling for different macroeconomic fundamentals and city and property type fixed effects, documents substantial declines in rents of approximately 15% during the first six months of 2020 across the Asia–Pacific commercial property market. We further observe that the most significant declines in rent occur in regions where exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic is the more severe, and in the retail property sector, where we have been observing continued declines of over 30%, with little recovery as of the second quarter of 2020. In additional analysis, we examine capital values and show that while capital targeting the retail property sector has been muted, there is some evidence showing capital flows into the residential and industrial sectors. We also show that fiscal stimuli imposed by governments have moderated the adverse impact of the pandemic. Overall, our study shows that while the effect of the COVID-19 public health crisis is detrimental to commercial real estate, its impact varies significantly across different regions and property sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Roddy Allan & Ervi Liusman & Teddy Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Commercial Property Rent Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:360-:d:609511
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/8/360/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/8/360/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Jeffrey D. Fisher & Maggie Rong Hu, 2016. "Commercial Real Estate Rental Index: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Estimation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 378-410, April.
    2. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M. Stulz, 2020. "How Valuable is Financial Flexibility When Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-37, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    4. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F. Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
    6. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 0. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    7. Rui Albuquerque & Yrjo Koskinen & Shuai Yang & Chendi Zhang, 2020. "Resiliency of Environmental and Social Stocks: An Analysis of the Exogenous COVID-19 Market Crash," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 593-621.
    8. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2009-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," Working Papers Series inetwp119, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    10. Hyunduk Suh & Jin Young Yang, 2020. "Housing Cycle and Firm Investment: International Firm-level Evidence," Inha University IBER Working Paper Series 2020-2, Inha University, Institute of Business and Economic Research.
    11. Ozili, Peterson & Arun, Thankom, 2020. "Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy," MPRA Paper 99317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Francke, Marc & Korevaar, Matthijs, 2021. "Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Marco Pagano & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Disaster Resilience and Asset Prices," Papers 2005.08929, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ding, Wenzhi & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Xie, Wensi, 2021. "Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 802-830.
    16. Quigley, John M., 2001. "Real Estate and the Asian Crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 129-161, June.
    17. Scott R Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J Davis & Kyle Kost & Marco Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 742-758.
    18. Barrett A. Slade, 2000. "Office Rent Determinants during Market Decline and Recovery," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 20(3), pages 357-380.
    19. Piet Eichholtz & Ronald Huisman & Kees Koedijk & Lisa Schuin, 1998. "Continental Factors in International Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 493-509, September.
    20. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    21. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-197, September.
    22. Rui Albuquerque & Yrjo Koskinen & Shuai Yang & Chendi Zhang, 0. "Resiliency of Environmental and Social Stocks: An Analysis of the Exogenous COVID-19 Market Crash," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 593-621.
    23. Rosen, Kenneth T & Smith, Lawrence B, 1983. "The Price-Adjustment Process for Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 779-786, September.
    24. Hoyt Bleakley, 2007. "Disease and Development: Evidence from Hookworm Eradication in the American South," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 73-117.
    25. Li, Kai & Liu, Xing & Mai, Feng & Zhang, Tengfei, 2021. "The Role of Corporate Culture in Bad Times: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(7), pages 2545-2583, November.
    26. Ramelli, Stefano, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Omokolade Akinsomi, 2020. "How resilient are REITs to a pandemic? The COVID-19 effect," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(1), pages 19-24, July.
    28. Dimitris Papanikolaou & Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, 2020. "Working Remotely and the Supply-side Impact of Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 27330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    30. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-50, March.
    31. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    32. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 0. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    33. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai & Tien-Foo Sing, 2013. "Are REITs a good shelter from financial crises? Evidence from the Asian markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 237-253, April.
    34. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436, December.
    35. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
    36. Erik Devos & Seow-Eng Ong & Andrew Spieler & Desmond Tsang, 2013. "REIT Institutional Ownership Dynamics and the Financial Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 266-288, August.
    37. David M. Blank & Louis Winnick, 1953. "The Structure of the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 181-208.
    38. Petr Zemcik & Vyacheslav Mikhed, 2009. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," ERES eres2009_275, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    39. Maria Ibanez & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2013. "Commercial Property Rent Dynamics in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: An Examination of Office, Industrial, Flex and Retail Space," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 232-259, February.
    40. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Patrick L. Leoni, 2013. "Pandemics of the poor and banking stability," Post-Print hal-01499618, HAL.
    41. Marcus R. Keogh‐Brown & Simon Wren‐Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360, November.
    42. Attila Ambrus & Erica Field & Robert Gonzalez, 2020. "Loss in the Time of Cholera: Long-Run Impact of a Disease Epidemic on the Urban Landscape," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(2), pages 475-525, February.
    43. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 80-101, July.
    44. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Andrew N. Greenland & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 26950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naga Pillada & Sangeetha Rangasamy, 2023. "An empirical investigation of investor sentiment and volatility of realty sector market in India: an application of the DCC–GARCH model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Chuanhao Tian & Xintian Peng & Xiang Zhang, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Urban Resilience and Real Estate Prices: The Experience of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Kowalski Michał J. & Wang Tong & Kazak Jan K., 2023. "The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Value Migration Processes in the Real Estate Sector," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 10-24, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoling Chu & Chiuling Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "Geographic Scope and Real Estate Firm Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Al Mamun, Mohammed Abdullah, 2021. "How resilient are the Asia Pacific financial markets against a global pandemic?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Steven J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 32-67, March.
    4. Nils Engelhardt & Jens Ekkenga & Peter Posch, 2021. "ESG Ratings and Stock Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Ducret, Romain, 2021. "Investors' perception of business group membership during an economic crisis : Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," FSES Working Papers 524, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    6. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Michal Bernardelli & Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawel Niedziolka, 2021. "The banking sector as the absorber of the COVID-19 crisis’ economic consequences: perception of WSE investors," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 335-374, June.
    8. Demir, Ender & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Marco Pagano & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Disaster Resilience and Asset Prices," Papers 2005.08929, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    10. Massimiliano Affinito & Raffaele Santioni, 2021. "When the panic broke out: COVID-19 and investment funds' portfolio rebalancing around the world," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1342, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Bae, Kee-Hong & El Ghoul, Sadok & Gong, Zhaoran (Jason) & Guedhami, Omrane, 2021. "Does CSR matter in times of crisis? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Amore, Mario Daniele & Pelucco, Valerio & Quarato, Fabio, 2022. "Family ownership during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Ding, Wenzhi & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Xie, Wensi, 2021. "Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 802-830.
    14. Xue, Fujing & Li, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Ting & Hu, Nan, 2021. "Stock market reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic: The moderating role of corporate big data strategies based on Word2Vec," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Neukirchen, Daniel & Engelhardt, Nils & Krause, Miguel & Posch, Peter N., 2022. "Firm efficiency and stock returns during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    16. Tetyana Balyuk & Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala & Manju Puri, 2020. "Indirect Costs of Government Aid and Intermediary Supply Effects: Lessons From the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 28114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "The role of non-critical business and telework propensity in international stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 29/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Garel, Alexandre & Petit-Romec, Arthur, 2021. "Investor rewards to environmental responsibility: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Lei Li & Philip E. Strahan & Song Zhang, 2020. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:360-:d:609511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.