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Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process

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  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Bryan D. MacGregor
  • Raymond Y.C. Tse

Abstract

Rental adjustment equations have been estimated for a quarter century. In the U.S., models have used the deviation of the actual vacancy rate from the natural rate as the main explanatory variable, while in the UK, drivers of the demand for space have dominated the estimation. The recent papers of Hendershott (1996) and Hendershott, Lizieri and Matysiak (HLM, 1999) fall into the former category. We re-estimate these equations using alternative formulations but can do little to improve them overall. However, we identify econometric concerns with the specifications. We then derive a model incorporating both supply and demand factors within an Error Correction framework, and show how the U.S. and UK traditions are special cases of this more general formulation. We next estimate this equation using data from the City of London office market. Our initial specification of this more generalized model is greatly superior to the vacancy rate model. Finally, we estimate a two-equation variant with a separate vacancy rate equation; this model also performs much better than that of HLM. Importantly, our model passes standard modern econometric requirements for unit roots and co-integration. We find little evidence of special or temporal variation in natural vacancy rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2000. "Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 7912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7912
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Arnott, 1997. "Rent Control," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 391., Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Grenadier Steven R., 1995. "Local and National Determinants of Office Vacancies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 57-71, January.
    3. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436, December.
    4. Arthur A. Eubank & C. R. Sirmans, 1979. "The Price Adjustment Mechanism for Rental Housing in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(1), pages 163-168.
    5. Stuart A. Gabriel & Frank E. Nothaft, 1988. "Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 419-429, December.
    6. Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458, December.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387, June.
    8. Rosen, Kenneth T & Smith, Lawrence B, 1983. "The Price-Adjustment Process for Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 779-786, September.
    9. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 51-67, January.
    10. Shilling, James D. & Sirmans, C. F. & Corgel, John B., 1987. "Price adjustment process for rental office space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 90-100, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Kubíček, 2005. "Rovnovážná cena fixního aktiva v rostoucí ekonomice [Equilibrium real price of a fixed asset in a growing economy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(3), pages 405-421.
    2. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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