Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle

Previous literature has followed an evolutionary path in the examination of office market volatility. Where initial models were designed to show the close relationship between economic fundamentals and volatility at the national level, more recent models have focused on metro-level volatility. This study quantifies the volatility associated with metropolitan markets in terms of vacancy rates and identifies those economic factors that underlie this risk. The analysis suggests that movements in vacancy rates are likely to be affected by different factors at different stages of the cycle. In the long run, this analysis shows that the availability of capital had the strongest effect on the volatility of office vacancy rates. In periods that follow excess construction, market-specific, demand-side factors appear to be the dominant influence.