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Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle

Previous literature has followed an evolutionary path in the examination of office market volatility. Where initial models were designed to show the close relationship between economic fundamentals and volatility at the national level, more recent models have focused on metro-level volatility. This study quantifies the volatility associated with metropolitan markets in terms of vacancy rates and identifies those economic factors that underlie this risk. The analysis suggests that movements in vacancy rates are likely to be affected by different factors at different stages of the cycle. In the long run, this analysis shows that the availability of capital had the strongest effect on the volatility of office vacancy rates. In periods that follow excess construction, market-specific, demand-side factors appear to be the dominant influence.

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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 12 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 469-501

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:12:n:3:1996:p:469-501
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
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Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


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  1. Marie Howland & David S. Wessel, 1994. "Projecting Suburban Office Space Demand: Alternative Estimates of Employment in Offices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 369-390.
  2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
  3. William N. Goetzmann & Susan M. Wachter, 1998. "Clustering Methods for Real Estate Portfolios," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm59, Yale School of Management.
  4. John Clapp & Henry O. Pollakowski & Lloyd Lynford, 1992. "Intrametropolitan Location and Office Market Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 229-258.
  5. Jos Janssen & Bert Kruijt & Barrie Needham, 1994. "The Honeycomb Cycle in Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(2), pages 237-252.
  6. Ira G. Kawaller, 1979. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Multifamily Housing Starts: A Descriptive Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 45-62.
  7. Stuart A. Gabriel & Frank E. Nothaft, 1988. "Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 419-429.
  8. Clayton P. Pritchett, 1977. "The Effect of Regional Growth Characteristics on Regional Housing Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 189-208.
  9. Richard Voith & Theodore Crone, 1988. "National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 437-458.
  10. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547.
  11. John S. Hekman, 1985. "Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 32-47.
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