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Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle

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Abstract

Real estate markets go through both physical cycles (demand and supply) that affect rental growth rates and financial cycles (capital flows to real estate) that affect property Prices (Mueller, 1995). This study develops a rental growth rate hypothesis based on a market’s position in the physical (demand-supply) market cycle. Using data from fifty-four office and industrial markets in the United States over a thirty-year period, an aggregated national average rental growth rate was calculated for each point in the cycle. An ANOVA test for differences of means found that the national average rental growth rates at each point in the cycle were statistically different. The results show local demand and supply, which interact to affect occupancy, are major determinants in rental growth rates. This research should help investors move from using a single rental growth rate for multiple year forecasts, to using yearly cycle driven rental growth rate estimates in their discounted cash flow projections.

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  • Glenn R. Mueller, 1999. "Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 131-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:131-150
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    1. Nitzan, Shmuel & Tzur, Joseph, 1991. "Costly diagnosis and price dispersion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 245-251, July.
    2. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Waldo L. Born & James R. Webb, 1990. "Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 177-194.
    3. Fershtman, Chaim & Fishman, Arthur, 1992. "Price Cycles and Booms: Dynamic Search Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1221-1233, December.
    4. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
    5. Carlson, John A & McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "Discrete Equilibrium Price Dispersion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 480-493, June.
    6. MacMinn, Richard D, 1980. "Search and Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 308-327, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Changha Jin & Terry V. Grissom, 2008. "Forecasting Dynamic Investment Timing under the Cyclic Behavior in Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 105-125.
    2. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084, April.
    3. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2012. "The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks," NBP Working Papers 132, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    4. Laurin Frederic, 2011. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," EERC Working Paper Series 11/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. Fuerst, Franz, 2007. "Office Rent Determinants: A Hedonic Panel Analysis," MPRA Paper 11445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rose Lai & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2007. "Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188, January.
    7. Richard D. Evans & Glenn R. Mueller, 2016. "Five Property Types¡¦ Real Estate Cycles as Markov Chains," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 265-296.
    8. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2013. "The Commercial Real Estate Market, Central Bank Monitoring and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Analysis, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 213-250, December.
    9. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
    10. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92.
    11. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    12. Frederic Laurin & John-John D'Argensio & Thea Goginashvili, 2010. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," Working Papers 10-001, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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