IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle

Abstract

Real estate markets go through both physical cycles (demand and supply) that affect rental growth rates and financial cycles (capital flows to real estate) that affect property Prices (Mueller, 1995). This study develops a rental growth rate hypothesis based on a market’s position in the physical (demand-supply) market cycle. Using data from fifty-four office and industrial markets in the United States over a thirty-year period, an aggregated national average rental growth rate was calculated for each point in the cycle. An ANOVA test for differences of means found that the national average rental growth rates at each point in the cycle were statistically different. The results show local demand and supply, which interact to affect occupancy, are major determinants in rental growth rates. This research should help investors move from using a single rental growth rate for multiple year forecasts, to using yearly cycle driven rental growth rate estimates in their discounted cash flow projections.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n01/v18p131.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 131-150

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:131-150
Contact details of provider: Postal:
American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323

Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
Email:

Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
  2. Carlson, John A & McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "Discrete Equilibrium Price Dispersion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 480-493, June.
  3. Nitzan, Shmuel & Tzur, Joseph, 1991. "Costly diagnosis and price dispersion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 245-251, July.
  4. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Waldo L. Born & James R. Webb, 1990. "Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 177-194.
  5. MacMinn, Richard D, 1980. "Search and Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 308-327, April.
  6. Fershtman, Chaim & Fishman, Arthur, 1992. "Price Cycles and Booms: Dynamic Search Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1221-1233, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Changha Jin & Terry V. Grissom, 2008. "Forecasting Dynamic Investment Timing under the Cyclic Behavior in Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 105-125.
  2. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084, April.
  3. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2012. "The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks," NBP Working Papers 132, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  4. Laurin Frederic, 2011. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," EERC Working Paper Series 11/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  5. Fuerst, Franz, 2007. "Office Rent Determinants: A Hedonic Panel Analysis," MPRA Paper 11445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Rose Lai & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2007. "Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188, January.
  7. Richard D. Evans & Glenn R. Mueller, 2016. "Five Property Types¡¦ Real Estate Cycles as Markov Chains," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 265-296.
  8. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2013. "The Commercial Real Estate Market, Central Bank Monitoring and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Analysis, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 213-250, December.
  9. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
  10. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92.
  11. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  12. Frederic Laurin & John-John D'Argensio & Thea Goginashvili, 2010. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," Working Papers 10-001, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:131-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.