Forecasting Dynamic Investment Timing under the Cyclic Behavior in Real Estate
This paper applies the Hodrck-Prescott (HP) filter to forecast short-term residential real estate prices under cyclical movements. We separate the trend component from the cyclical component. We show that each regional residential market reacts not only to previous price movements, but also that these regional markets react to previous shocks under Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling. Using the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we compare our forecast to index values from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Housing Futures and Options. Our study identifies possible systematic errors from the different price adjustments reflecting current market situations.
Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA|
Web page: http://www.asres.org/
|Order Information:|| Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA|
Web: http://www.asres.org/ Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen A. Pyhrr & Waldo L. Born & James R. Webb, 1990. "Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 177-194.
- John M. Clapp & Carmelo Giaccotto, 2002. "Evaluating House Price Forecasts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-26.
- Witold Witkiewicz, 2002. "The Use of the HP-filter in Constructing Real Estate Cycle Indicators," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 65-88.
- Jim Clayton, 1996. "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 441-470.
- Gordon W. Crawford & Michael C. Fratantoni, 2003. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime-Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 223-243, 06.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn R. Mueller, 1999. "Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 131-150.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:11:n:02:2008:p:105-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IRER Secretary Office/Webmaster)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.