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Is there a bubble in the Chinese housing market?


  • Dreger, Christian
  • Zhang, Yanqun


For many analysts, the Chinese economy is spurred by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with possible adverse effects to the real economy. To get insights into the size of the bubble, the house price evolution is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a dataset for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house prices and a set of macroeconomic determinants, implying that a bubble exhibits mean-reverting behaviour. The results indicate that the bubble is about 25 percent of the equilibrium value implied by the fundamentals at the end of 2009. The bubble is particularly huge in the cities in the southeast coastal areas and special economic zones. While the impact of real house prices on CPI inflation appears to be rather strong, GDP growth may not be heavily affected. Thus, a decline of the bubble will likely have only modest effects on the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2010. "Is there a bubble in the Chinese housing market?," Discussion Papers 290, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:290

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    2. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9565-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng & Hongyu Liu, 2014. "House Price Index Construction in the Nascent Housing Market: The Case of China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 522-545, April.
    4. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Are government interventions effective in regulating China fs house prices?," Discussion Papers 1427, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
    6. Bolan Liu & Xiaowei Ai & Pan Liu & Chuang Zhang & Xingqi Hu & Tianpu Dong, 2015. "Fuel Economy Improvement of a Heavy-Duty Powertrain by Using Hardware-in-Loop Simulation and Calibration," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(9), pages 1-14, September.
    7. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9586-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Chinese economy; panel cointegration; house price bubbles;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models


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