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Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle

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Abstract

This study uses a structural equation approach to assess the presence of a credit supply effect in the commercial mortgage market and the lenders' ability to incorporate expectations about this effect into their lending policies. A credit supply effect is defined as the effect of mortgage supply on the level of loan defaults. The empirical analysis shows two important results. First, changes in loan defaults appear to be followed by changes in commercial mortgage supply with a lag of approximately four to five years. Second, lenders tend to behave myopically, failing to incorporate expectations about the credit supply effect into their lending policies. Additionally, a simulation suggests that adequate timing of the mortgage supply cycle is crucial in limiting the incidence of mortgage default.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis C. Mejia, 1999. "Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 175-196.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:175-196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hillier, Brian & Ibrahimo, M V, 1993. "Asymmetric Information and Models of Credit Rationing," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 271-304, October.
    2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    3. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1987. "The Causes and Consequences of the Dependence of Quality on Price," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    4. Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88.
    5. Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & David Hartzell & Dennis Kraft & William Wendt, 1993. "Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 451-480.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    7. Graddy, Duane B & Kyle, Reuben & Strickland, Thomas H, 1994. "The Differential Effects of Deregulation on Savings and Loan Associations and Banks," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 289-300, Summer.
    8. Ramon P. DeGennaro & Larry H.P. Lang & James B. Thomson, 1993. "Troubled Savings and Loan Institutions: Turnaround Strategies Under Insolvency," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    9. Brent W. Ambrose & John Benjamin & Peter Chinloy, 1996. "Credit Restrictions and the Market for Commercial Real Estate Loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bradford Case, 2003. "Loss characteristics of commercial real estate loan portfolios," Basel II White Paper 1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123.
    3. Ron Donohue & Patric H. Hendershott, 2004. "Fund Flows and Commercial Real Estate Investment: Evidence from the Commercial Mortgage Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 417-442.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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