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A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

  • David C. Ling

    ()

    (Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611)

We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

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File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol27n02/01.137_154.pdf
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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 27 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 137-154

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:27:n:2:2005:p:137-154
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
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Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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