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A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

Author

Listed:
  • David C. Ling

    () (Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611)

Abstract

We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Ling, 2005. "A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(2), pages 137-154.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:27:n:2:2005:p:137-154
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    2. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November.
    3. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
    4. Shaun Bond & Paul Mitchell, 2010. "Alpha and Persistence in Real Estate Fund Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-79, July.
    5. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    6. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    7. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2009. "IPO Pricing Strategies with Deadweight and Search Costs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 481-542.
    8. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    9. James Shilling & C. Sirmans & Barrett Slade, 2013. "Who Says there is a High Consensus Among Analysts when Market Uncertainty is High? Some New Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 688-718, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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