IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011ifeb14n2011-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What is the new normal unemployment rate?

Author

Abstract

Recent labor markets developments, including mismatches in the skills of workers and jobs, extended unemployment benefits, and very high rates of long-term joblessness, may be impeding the return to \\"normal\\" unemployment rates of around 5%. An examination of alternative measures of labor market conditions suggests that the \\"normal\\" unemployment rate may have risen as much as 1.7 percentage points to about 6.7%, although much of this increase is likely to prove temporary. Even with such an increase, sizable labor market slack is expected to persist for years.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2011. "What is the new normal unemployment rate?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb14.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb14:n:2011-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-05.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Waters, George A., 2013. "Quantity rationing of credit and the Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 68-80.
    2. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    3. Gonul Sengul & Murat Tasci, 2014. "Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey," Working Papers 1435, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Aysun, Uluc & Bouvet, Florence & Hofler, Richard, 2014. "An alternative measure of structural unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 592-603.
    6. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, 2012. "Full Employment through Social Entrepreneurship: The Nonprofit Model for Implementing a Job Guarantee," Economics Policy Note Archive 12-02, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. John C. Williams, 2015. "The economic outlook: live long and prosper," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. John Schmitt, 2011. "Labor Market Policy in the Great Recession: Some Lessons from Denmark and Germany," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2011-12, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    9. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    10. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
    11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2012. "Commentary: the United States labor market: status quio pr a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 453-462.
    12. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, 2012. "Reorienting Fiscal Policy after the Great Recession," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_719, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. John C. Williams, 2011. "Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?," Speech 83, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb14:n:2011-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.