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Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Gonul Sengul

    (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Murat Tasci

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Abstract

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for the unemployment rate trend over time in Turkey, currently standing between 8.5 and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market turnover. We also find that allowing for an explicit role for participation changes the results substantially, reducing the “natural” rate at first, but then getting closer to the baseline over time. Finally, we show that this parsimonious model can be used for forecasting unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonul Sengul & Murat Tasci, 2014. "Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1404, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1404
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk measurement; systemic risk; connectedness; systemically important financial institutions; vector autoregression; variance decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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