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Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey


  • Gonul Sengul

    () (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Murat Tasci

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)


This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for the unemployment rate trend over time in Turkey, currently standing between 8.5 and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market turnover. We also find that allowing for an explicit role for participation changes the results substantially, reducing the “natural” rate at first, but then getting closer to the baseline over time. Finally, we show that this parsimonious model can be used for forecasting unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonul Sengul & Murat Tasci, 2014. "Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1404, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1404

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Richard Rogerson, 1997. "Theory Ahead of Language in the Economics of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 73-92, Winter.
    2. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
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    6. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    7. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
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    10. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
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    17. Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2011. "What is the new normal unemployment rate?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb14.
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    More about this item


    Risk measurement; systemic risk; connectedness; systemically important financial institutions; vector autoregression; variance decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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