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Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias

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  • Nordmeier, Daniela

Abstract

Employing daily information from German administrative data, this paper analyzes the effects of time aggregation in the measurement of worker flows. Time aggregation that is based on a comparison of monthly labor market states leads to an underestimation of total worker flows by approximately 10%, which is larger than the prediction of a standard correction approach. Multiple labor market transitions within a month induce a procyclical bias in the job-finding rate but not in the separation rate. Rather, during upswings, workers are more likely to change jobs with short intervening transition periods. Relative to previous findings, this reconsideration of German worker flows reveals that the job-finding rate plays a larger role in explaining unemployment fluctuations, although the additional dynamics of the time aggregation bias are shown to be less significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Nordmeier, Daniela, 2014. "Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:28:y:2014:i:c:p:70-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2014.03.010
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    2. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
    3. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Thomas Rothe & Klaus Wälde, 2017. "Where Did All the Unemployed Go? Non-standard work in Germany after the Hartz reforms," Working Papers 1709, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    5. Jong-Suk Han & Jiwoon Kim, 2019. "Reassessing the Inflows and Outflows of Unemployment in Korea," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 35, pages 25-59.
    6. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    7. Daouli, Joan & Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa, 2015. "The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression," MPRA Paper 66299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bachmann, Ronald & Boockmann, Bernhard & Cim, Merve & Felder, Rahel & Frings, Hanna & Janisch, Laura M. & Schaffner, Sandra & Späth, Jochen & Tamm, Marcus, 2018. "Vergleich von Datenquellen für eine Analyse von Übergängen am Arbeitsmarkt: Studie im Auftrag der Mindestlohnkommission," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 180217, September.
    9. Kawaguchi, Daiji & Mori, Yuko, 2021. "Estimating the effects of the minimum wage using the introduction of indexation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 388-408.
    10. Regina T. Riphahn & Rebecca Schrader, 2017. "Measuring the cyclicality of labour market flows using individual transitions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 643-647, May.
    11. Joan Daouli & Michael Demoussis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Nikolitsa Lampropoulou, 2015. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Current Greek Economic Crisis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(2), pages 177-196.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time aggregation; Worker flows; Job-finding rate; Separation rate; Unemployment decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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