The role of worker flows in the dynamics and distribution of UK unemployment
Unemployment varies substantially over time and across subgroups of the labour market. Worker flows among labour market states act as key determinants of this variation. We examine how the structure of unemployment across groups and its cyclical movements across time are shaped by changes in labour market flows. Using novel estimates of flow transition rates for the UK over the last 35 years, we decompose unemployment variation into parts accounted for by changes in rates of job loss, job finding and flows via non-participation. Close to two-thirds of the volatility of unemployment in the UK over this period can be traced to rises in rates of job loss that accompany recessions. The share of this inflow contribution has been broadly the same in each of the past three recessions. Decreased job-finding rates account for around one-quarter of unemployment cyclicality and the remaining variation can be attributed to flows via non-participation. Digging deeper into the structure of unemployment by gender, age and education, the flow-approach is shown to provide a richer understanding of the unemployment experiences across population subgroups. Key words: labour market ; unemployment ; worker flows JEL classification: E24 ; J6
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CV4 7AL COVENTRY|
Phone: +44 (0) 2476 523202
Fax: +44 (0) 2476 523032
Web page: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel Sullivan, 1992.
"Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers,"
Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles
92-11, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- George L. Perry, 1972. "Unemployment Flows in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(2), pages 245-292.
- Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009.
"The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, 05.
- Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2007. "The cyclicality of separation and job finding rates," Working Papers 07-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2011.
"Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
11-159/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2009. "Unemployment dynamics in the OECD," Working Paper Series 2009-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2008. "Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD," NBER Working Papers 14617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, July.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, July.
- Gomes, Pedro, 2012.
"Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom,"
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
- Gomes, Pedro Maia, 2010. "Labour Market Flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," IZA Discussion Papers 5327, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009.
"The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
- Smith, Jennifer, 2010.
"The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
944, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Michael W.L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith, 2010. "The Great Recession In The Uk Labour Market: A Transatlantic Perspective," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages R26-R37, October.
- Peter J. Kuhn (ed.), 2002. "Losing Work, Moving On: International Perspectives on Worker Displacement," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number lwmo, October.
- Robert Shimer, 2007.
"Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment,"
NBER Working Papers
13421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregg, Paul & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1995. "A Short History of Labour Turnover, Job Tenure, and Job Security, 1975-93," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 73-90, Spring.
- Simon Burgess & Hélène Turon, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 423-448, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helen Neal)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.