IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On gross worker flows in the United Kingdom: evidence from the Labour Force Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Bell
  • James Smith

Abstract

Empirical studies of worker flows in the United States and Europe have found that these flows are large when compared with the change in the stocks of employment and non-employment, and have a distinct cyclical pattern. In the United Kingdom, studies of this kind have been hampered by limitations in the available data. In this paper use is made of newly released longitudinal data from the Labour Force Survey. It is shown that, on average, since 1993 7.3% of those in the working-age population have changed labour market state in a given three-month period. This compares with a consistently calculated annual figure of 12.5%. In addition, an array of evidence is presented to show that UK gross flows appear to follow a cyclical pattern similar to those found in other countries. Evidence is also presented on the potential problems that previous research may suffer from with their use of recall data to determine prior labour market status. While stocks are similar using recall or recorded labour market state, flows inferred from recall data are severely biased by recall error.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Bell & James Smith, 2002. "On gross worker flows in the United Kingdom: evidence from the Labour Force Survey," Bank of England working papers 160, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2002/wp160.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1994. "Search Unemployment with On-the-job Search," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 457-475.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, December.
    3. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "Persistence and the German Unemployment Problem: Empirical Evidences on German Labor Market Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 31, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Helene, 2000. "Unemployment dynamics, duration and equilibrium: evidence from Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20162, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter, 1992. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 354-359, May.
    6. Lucia Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2001. "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 303-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Burgess, Simon M., 1994. "Matching models and labour market flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 809-816, April.
    8. Hoyt Bleakley & Ann E. Ferris & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "New data on worker flows during business cycles," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 49-76.
    9. Burda, Michael & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Gross worker and job flows in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1287-1315, June.
    10. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    11. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    12. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2011. "The role of worker flows in the dynamics and distribution of UK unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 338-363.
    3. Makoto Kakinaka & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2012. "Unemployment and labour force participation in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1039-1043, July.
    4. Michael W. L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2021. "Population growth, immigration and labour market dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1814, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Zanetti, Francesco, 2011. "Labor market institutions and aggregate fluctuations in a search and matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 644-658, June.
    6. Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2015. "The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2523-2539, May.
    7. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2013. "Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 530-548, May.
    8. Katarzyna Budnik, 2007. "Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland," NBP Working Papers 44, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    9. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Guay Lim, 2005. "An Examination of Net Flows in the Australian Labour Market," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 25-42, March.
    10. Andrew Sutton, 2013. "On the determinants of UK unemployment and the Great Recession: analysing the gross flows data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(25), pages 3599-3616, September.
    11. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
    12. Ibrahim Arisoy, 2018. "An Empirical Examination of Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis, Discouraged and Added Worker Effects in Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 11-14.
    13. M. K. Jones & R. J. Jones & P. L. Latreille & P. D. Murphy & P. J. Sloane, 2013. "A regional analysis of flows into and out of the UK national minimum wage," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(21), pages 3074-3087, July.
    14. Ahn Hie Joo & Shao Ling, 2021. "The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 185-220, January.
    15. Bank of England, 2008. "Labor Market Institutions and Aggregate Fluctuations in a Search and Matching Model," 2008 Meeting Papers 370, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Robert Dixon, 2007. "Regional Differences in the Severity of Recessions in the UK," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1009, The University of Melbourne.
    17. Hie Joo Ahn & Ling Shao, 2017. "Precautionary On-the-Job Search over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Brian Bell & James Smith, 2004. "Health, disability insurance and labour force participation," Bank of England working papers 218, Bank of England.
    19. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2004. "A Framework For Understanding Changes In The Unemployment Rate In A Flows Context: An Examination Net Flows In The Australian Labour Market," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 910, The University of Melbourne.
    20. Mark Schweitzer & David Tinsley, 2004. "The UK labour force participation rate: business cycle and trend influences," Bank of England working papers 228, Bank of England.
    21. Renato Faccini & Stephen Millard & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "Wage Rigidities in an Estimated Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium Model of the UK Labour Market," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 66-99, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
    2. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2001. "The importance of employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ravi Balakrishnan, 2001. "The interaction of firing costs and on-the-job search: an application of a search theoretic model to the Spanish labour market," Working Papers 0102, Banco de España.
    4. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    6. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Hélène, 2010. "Worker flows, job flows and unemployment in a matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 393-408, April.
    7. Ravi Balakrishnan & Claudio Michelacci, 1998. "Unemployment Dynamics Across OECD Countries," Working Papers wp1998_9806, CEMFI.
    8. Turon, Helene & Simon Burgess, 2003. "Unemployment equilibrium and on-the-job search," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 208, Royal Economic Society.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-045 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    11. Fernando Martins & Domingos Seward, 2019. "Into the heterogeneities in the Portuguese labour market: an empirical assessment," Working Papers w201908, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Yashiv, Eran, 2006. "Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 909-936, May.
    13. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
    14. Muysken, Joan & Weel, Bas ter, 1999. "Overeducation, Job Competition and Unemployment," Research Memorandum 030, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Andersson, Fredrik, 1999. "Job flows in Swedish manufacturing 1972-1996," Working Paper Series 1999:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    16. Bachmann, Ronald, 2005. "Labour market dynamics in Germany: Hirings, separations, and job-to-job transitions over the business cycle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    17. Shigeru Fujita, 2004. "Vacancy persistence," Working Papers 04-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Helene, 2000. "Unemployment dynamics, duration and equilibrium: evidence from Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20162, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Katarzyna Budnik, 2007. "Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland," NBP Working Papers 44, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    20. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    21. Jasper Hoek, 2002. "Labor Market Institutions and Restructuring: Evidence from Regulated and Unregulated Labor Markets in Brazil," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 484, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.