Regional Differences in the Severity of Recessions in the UK
This paper aims to provide a fresh approach to understanding regional unemployment dynamics and differences. Specifically, we develop a framework to explain differences between regions in the severity (measured in terms of how far unemployment rises) of recessions. The main contribution of this paper is draw attention to the role of the elasticity of the outflow rate with respect to unemployment in determining the severity of recessions. The key parameter of the model - the elasticity of the outflow rate with respect to unemployment - is estimated using regional data for the United Kingdom over the period 1989:1 - 2003:4. This elasticity appears to be higher in the north than the south implying that, for the same percentage increase in inflow, the level (and rate) of unemployment will rise further in northern regions than in southern regions. It follows that, if there has indeed been any reversal of the north-south divide in the United Kingdom as some have claimed, it must have its origins on the inflow, not the outflow, side of the labour market.
|Date of creation:||2007|
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