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Beyond Okun's Law: Output Growth and Labor Market Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Guay C. Lim

    (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

  • Robert Dixon

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Jan C. van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth using an approach based on labour market flows. The framework shows why the Okun coefficient may be constant/time-varying and/or symmetric/asymmetric and that the outcome lies with the behaviour of the labour flows in response to growth. The encompassing framework nests the conditions to determine the properties of the Okun coefficient without the need to rely on retrospective arbitrary dating of recessions. The framework also highlights the potential mispecification in conventional models of Okun's Law unless stringent conditions are assumed about the behavior of labour flows. The empirical analysis is based on the stock-consistent labour market flows data developed by the BLS for the period 1990:2-2017:3.

Suggested Citation

  • Guay C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan C. van Ours, 2019. "Beyond Okun's Law: Output Growth and Labor Market Flows," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2019n01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandrine Cazes & Sher Verick & Fares Al Hussami, 2013. "Why did unemployment respond so differently to the global financial crisis across countries? Insights from Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 83-131.
    3. Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Okun's Law across the Business Cycle and during the Great Recession: A Markov Switching Analysis," Working Papers 139, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    4. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
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    9. Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 1-87.
    10. Demiralp, Berna & Gantt, Bonnie B. & Selover, David D., 2011. "Modeling unemployment as an inventory: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 724-737.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benos, Nikos & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2022. "Okun's law: Copula-based evidence from G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 478-491.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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